April 29, 2024

The mountain of shit theory

Uriel Fanelli's blog in English

Fediverse

The role of the press in financial disasters.

As the Swiss central bank lends money to Credit Suisse, we have to wonder about the mechanism that drives so many small investors to leave money in banks, and other financial institutions, which are literally defunct. Because let's understand each other, if a few thousand people out of millions make a mistake, we can talk about variance. But if so many people do it, we have to look for a cause.

Imagine living in New York, being a person who has an Art gallery for work, being let's say “middle class” (your art gallery is fine) and intends to invest. You've only heard of silicon valley, you've only heard of bitcoin, you don't understand shit, but you have friends who make money with NFTs of works of art. You want to invest.

Where will you invest?

Here's where you'll invest. Unfortunately, among various charlatans and scammers, you will never see a penny of your savings again.

Now you might think that given the initial success of Theranos, the first of the four, it was permissible for the press to publish that article. There's just one small problem.

That Theranos has NEVER had a product, has NEVER SOLD a product, has NEVER HAD any “success” except… in the press.

Here we enter the problem: the press has the task of reporting the facts, but in the case of Theranos, it would have been enough to investigate a little (= ask an expert) to know that there was no fact to report.

The same is true of the press that preceded the 2008 crisis.

Big financial crises have always been created by the press: first they inflate empty companies and incense perfect imbeciles, prompting millions of savers to put their money there.

Then the bubble bursts.

We can say that the latest financial crises were clearly the fault of the press, which praised young buffoons and poorly managed banks.

And they knew it well, that they were poorly managed banks

What could possibly go wrong?

Even the "after" the crisis provides us with interesting observations. When something bad happens (for example losing savings, or becoming poor, being fired, etc.) we go through five stages.

Phase Newspaper headlines
Refusal or Denial “It can't happen in the EU”
Anger "It's the fault of the regulator who doesn't supervise"
Bargaining "Bank crisis, how to take cover"
Depression “Economic crisis, psychologist's advice”
Acceptance "Bank crisis, how to return to investing without anxiety"

In other words, newspapers follow the classic five phases of mourning reworking, and you'll think it's normal because it's about psychology, that is, the logic of all human facts.

But that's not true: the five stages of reprocessing the loss are typical of those who SUFFERED the loss.

And this is interesting, because it IMPLIES that the newspapers have suffered the loss. But newspapers are not banks or financial institutions, right?

Right?

Um…. Right?

….

No. I sure am.

As I think you know, Corriere, La Stampa and Repubblica part of a "GEDI" group are controlled by a Dutch financial group "Exor NV", owned by the Elkann family (the lambs, in short) who have investments here:

If you put everything in order of voting rights, you get the "vision" of EXOR:

And you notice that this group has been fighting to take control of companies in the following sectors, in which they evidently seek more control:

  • Newspapers
  • Soccer
  • Luxury (Shang Xia)

Obviously investments have different values ​​(and different economic returns), but the losses go in proportion to the amount you own.

As you can see, the link between financial groups and newspapers is evident. If the market crashes, the newspapers ARE affected, or rather, BELONG to those affected.

This, let's be clear, is not unique: Alex Springer, the German group that owns a dozen of the largest German newspapers (including "Politico") has this property:

As you can see, this is the KKR financial group. (the same one who wants to buy the TIM network, by the way).

As you can see, also in this case the finance-newspaper mixture is obvious.


What we deduce:

these financial crises arise within the finance/mass media environment, i.e. from the intertwining of finance and newspapers:

  • the newspapers create the bubble, inviting people to throw their savings into improbable enterprises, which are however acclaimed by the newspapers.
  • newspapers mourn the bubble, when their owners get burned.

If you want these bubbles not to repeat themselves, that is, the real problem is

separate printing from finance.

Or, you will see a crisis every 3-5 years.

Moreover, we could go and see the balance sheets of those groups, and see if they have lost out with the bubble. And the answer is “no”.


The suspicion therefore arises that these are operations organized to pluck chickens.

The first phase, which I will call "baiting" is done to attract the fish into the net, leading people to invest in this instead of the other.

Then comes the blow, when those who have lost all the money are "consoled", or guided in the reworking of the mourning.

If you see a crisis, therefore, all you have to do is look for the newspapers that caused it.

It is useless to look for blame in regulators or other scapegoats.

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