Just read a random article from any financial newspaper to read tons of "crisis forecasts". All financial forecasts related to this or that factor that according to "analysts" are going to lead to a crisis, an outbreak of the financial bubble, something similar to the 2008 crisis, and so on.
I personally don't believe it. For a reason: today's finance is dominated by machines.
But first let's see what I'm talking about:
And just search on google to understand that predicting the crisis is a widespread game:
The reason why all the finance newspapers are predicting a crisis is that they have to make it happen. Until a few years ago, such a bombardment of words as "incoming financial crisis" would have led every software to sell, with the result of causing a real crisis.
Why did they want to cause a crisis? For the usual two reasons:
- Gain. In times of crisis the rich get richer.
- Destroying rights: when there is a crisis everyone is afraid, and nobody is fighting for their rights.
But it doesn't work today. The real question is "why doesn't it work anymore", and the answer is simple.
With the arrival of the AI in the world of finance, the era of crises is over.
Of course, this does not necessarily mean that the crisis is impossible: no system is so stable that it can 100% exclude a crisis. But the problem is that all the crises caused by human factors, in human times, are practically impossible today.
I'll explain. Let's take the crack of Lehman Brothers.
The whole affair took place in a short time, that is a few days. When the problem broke out and when the near-meltdown of the stock market came, very few days passed. No one, government or financial regulator, could have solved this in such a short time. Only analyzing the short-term effects would have been impossible in such a short time.
But now finance is dominated by machines. For which a second is a HUGE time.
Suppose also that another Lehman collapses today. Let's say New Lehman. Good. All around, sales decisions are taken by machines. As soon as the title of New Lehman begins its rally, the AI rush to scalping and buy down. This produces a demand effect that stabilizes New Lehman almost immediately.
But behind there are humans who say "sell". Sure. But they say it to machines. Which can do the operation in an extremely fragmented manner, taking care to exploit scalping to always sell in conditions of gain or minimum loss. Under these conditions, the result is that a disaster of enormous proportions occurs under extremely controlled conditions. True, New Lehman is collapsing, but no one is putting a penny back on us.
It is not the first time that has happened since we are in the world of AI. Think of the tremendous fluctuations of some crap-related titles related to the New Economy. Wework, Uber, Lyft. But the expected results were not the disasters that everyone predicted. And it was not men who did this: in the past these disasters were not managed.
But today there are machines. They don't feel stress. They don't make emotional decisions. They receive orders, but execute them in an extremely calculated way. And for them the "few days" of the fall of Lehman Brothers were a geological era.
If a Lehman Brothers fell today, it would be just one of the many news items on the news. The collapse would occur in an extremely controlled way, at a speed that the nervous system cannot imagine. More or less exotic derivatives would be created on New Lehman credit swaps, in order to compensate for the micro losses through billions and billions of operations conducted in a few seconds.
This new superstability produced by machines is the maximum novelty of the new century: the period of the great financial crises is practically finished. We are in the age of superstability.
The black swan you can stick it in Q: maybe it will come, but not from the world of finance, and even if it arrives, you could live your entire life without ever seeing one.
Of course, there is always the possibility of a crisis so abnormal that not even the AI can manage, but the point is that it should REALLY be anomalous, and it should have a scope to accumulate losses, in such a rapid and pervasive way that not even machines capable of billions of transactions per second could handle.
Maybe it will happen, but stuff like that happens one a century, maybe. And not even all the centuries.
The world of finance has entered the era of superstability. The only crises we will see will be caused by human actors, but they will "re-enter" during the day (unless someone unleashes a nuclear war) except for such an unlikely scenario that hoping for is useless.
I say hope because these rhythmic crises have scared everyone. So afraid that for decades now no union, or political party, dare to make any claim. They are answered "be silent, fool! Is there a crisis, do you want to make things worse? Do you know how many entrepreneurs in difficulty would close ?! "
These rhythmic crises, at the rate of one every ten years, have characterized a period in which no claim was possible: there is a crisis. There is a crisis. We are not out of the crisis yet. A crisis is coming. The crisis looms. Remember the crisis. CrisiCrisiCrisiCrisiCrisi.
But today we are in the period of superstability: and we can see it even today. ALL financial newspapers talk about an imminent crisis, now for 5 years. In the past, under the same conditions, THE CRISIS WOULD COME ONLY BECAUSE IT WAS TALKED ABOUT IT.
In the past, the same behavior of the financial press would have been sufficient to create "risk allergy", and to bring everyone to "throw the oars in the bank". But it did not work. It's not working. Here and now.
Even if a crisis arrives tomorrow, the system would have shown itself to be incredibly more resistant to "wishful thinking" than to "normal" today.
The system is ALREADY resistant. We are ALREADY in the era of superstability, and this is demonstrated by the ineffectiveness of the wishful thinking of the big newspapers: they have been talking about a crisis for years. They predicted EVERY kind of crisis possible. Real estate, IT, industry, speculation, liquidity.
But nothing happens. Thousands and thousands of articles, on all the financial newspapers of the world, every day, and yet the pace of investments and transactions remains practically unchanged. Of course, this is also joined by the fact that in some countries that are financially very present on the markets (such as China and India), Western newspapers are hardly read. And this is another factor of stability, together with the use of AI in the world of finance.
But this does not change the final result.
The new century is a period of financial superstability.
Those who have based their strategy on the great financial crises, both a political strategy and a negotiation strategy towards the people's claims, are about to lose their battle horse.
Soon even the simplest "recession" will take effect: of course, there is the Recession. But no one is noticing practical effects, if not governments that with this excuse refuse to improve their welfare.
The crisis, like the recession, is a tiger that looks more and more like a kitten.
Now the problem is simple: this ruling class that has always used the crisis as a gag against the economic claims of the lower classes has two choices:
- Create a crisis so devastating as to overcome any attempt by the machines to stabilize the players' gain.
- Change strategy.
I can think that, given their way of thinking, they will try the first way. They are too fond of their methods to abandon them out of the blue. But the problem is that EVERYONE has used the traditional tools to fuel another crisis. And the maximum they are producing is a very limited slowdown in global trade.
So, or they will use some "weapon of judgment", hoping that the AI are not ready to fight it, or they will be forced to lose their watchdog: the Crisis.
There are two cases:
- Or a gigantic period of social demands is about to come.
- Or a gigantic period of police repression is coming.
There are no third ways: without the "crisis every ten years", the masters of the universe do not know how to silence social demands. They do not know which spectrum to shake to silence those who ask for more justice or more equity.
We have entered the era of superstability. Few major crises, and even when they are there they will be recovered in a hurry But for many, this is bad news.
As was the case with terrorism in Europe, the arrival of the AI has made it possible to stop the terrorists in time, if not even before they act. A crisis less, with which to silence the demands for fairness, freedom and justice.
Right now, the "masters of the universe" lack their traditional weapons. At this point, they can only give rise to a period of enormous repression.
In practice, they must put fascist regimes to power, practically everywhere.
And they are doing it.