And we finally voted …

Given that I am writing at a time when the situation is that of the image below, I do not think it can change dramatically due to the opening of the postal vote because given the extent of the phenomenon it will be a rather representative sample. That is, too large (~ 40%) to be different from the rest.

The first thing I say, for Repubblica journalists, is that “Andere” is not a party. Nor, in the case, "Sonstige". They didn't leave, okay?

(that I would not like to hear about a left “according to the Sonstige model”, or “according to the Andere model”. The “SPD Model” is enough and advances).

Good.

On the reason for this vote I can joke rather than explain. In the sense that the newspapers that had hypothesized an overwhelming left have, as usual, wrong. You want to explain that Wishful THinking no longer works.

I can joke about it, in the sense that the Germans, as usual, prove themselves geometric. If two parties are virtually identical, then they get the same number of votes. Strict, but fair.

But even no. In the sense that those numbers are misleading. I mean, the percentage composition of the parliament is VERY different from that.

This happens because of an electoral system where the number of those elected is … what in mathematics is a product row by column. No, I'm not kidding. Since both the party and the candidate are voted, and no one forbids you (if you take drugs, so to speak) from voting Scholz but also CDU, then the number of MPs changes to represent BOTH your vote for the CDU and that for Scholz, which it's from SPD.

In fact this year we will have 740 people in the Bundestag. And if you were wondering what the upper extreme is, know that if the whole population took drugs by voting as disjoint as possible, and there were the maximum number of candidates, and the maximum number of parties, we would get 6071 members of the Bundestag. I'm not kidding. Fortunately, there are few parties, there is a barrier, and therefore in a "statistically drug-free" situation the range is from ~ 600 to ~ 1000.

It is no coincidence that the Bundestag, that is the parliament, was built to be able to extend, both by occupying the seats of the public and by pulling back that sort of wall behind the chair of the president. Not up to 6071, but the theoretical capacity exceeds 1000.

Ok. What do I mean? I mean that if you look at the numbers above, 24.2% and 26.0%, you get that their sum would become 50.2%. A narrow majority. For real? Uhm.

As you can see, the difference between CDU and SPD does not exactly reflect the percentages. And this weighs heavily. It weighs because, if we go to see the possible coalitions "theoretically", we get this

As you can see, now SPD plus CDU manage to exceed the required majority (371) by a comfortable slice.

Now, you will say: but you are giving the wrong example of GroKo, because everyone excludes it.

True. But if we think like this, then the others are not possible either.

The Linke + Spd + Verdi coalition, which makes the whole world dream, does not reach the majority. This is because of the magical electoral system. 366 votes out of 371.

The other two are impossible. Impossible for a reason.

The thrillers we are talking about are FDP. A party that you can consider as the German "tea party". What does "tea party" mean? It means that it is the party of the rich, which does not want taxes and would demolish the entire welfare state, and does not believe that climate change requires any action, and does not tolerate digitalization because it considers it "the big brother" (actually rich, old balls who support him have never figured out how to turn on a cell phone, including Helen Fischer.). And that's why he was voted for.

Scholz has as an ESSENTIAL point for governing, that:

1. make a patrimonial.
2. the speed of cars should be limited, that is 130 on motorways, even those that today are unlimited, and 30 in the city.
3. the Hartz IV model is extended to become, when the requirements are met, a real citizenship income.

Now, even without bringing up the greens (who are even more extremist on ALL three points), you understand well that SPD and FDP do not fit together. The coalition of 419 parliamentarians is therefore not politically possible. It is like saying that Lega and Meloni will vote for a Boldrini government. Does not work.

It is under the "Jamaica" coalition, ie CDU / Grüne / FDP. Now, I don't know what makes you think that the greens, who have the same social proposals as SPD plus:

1. closure of all coal-fired power plants and all gas pipelines (at the expense of the industrialists who own them).
2. conversion of the entire industry to green technologies (here the Grunen are willing to a "deal" between government and industry, but have never said what "the pact" is.)
3. brutal, total, complete and inexorable digitization of everything it is possible to digitize.
4. pink quotas, kindergarden as if it were raining, urban mobility based on scooters and unicorns. Maybe they are not unicorns and I misunderstood.

As you can see, putting together Verdi and FDP is tiring, even more difficult than putting them together with the SPD. CDU and FDP have already been there together, but today the votes are not enough.

Moral of the story: don't forget the Groko. It's not impossible as the leaders say. It only takes some time for the citizens to digest it.

Three to four months of negotiations could be enough. But for the year-end speech there must be a chancellor speaking to the country. Also because Merkel has already made it clear that she wants to retire.

Ah yes: AFD. They have dropped and stopped at 10% nationwide, although in some Bundesländer they have grown. The fact is that they have grown in percentage, but they are regions with a very small population.

But no one is going to make a coalition with them. The secret service that deals with repressing possible Nazi zombies (and which has already closed other parties in the past) had paid attention to the AfD before the elections. Since there were elections, they appealed and won (democracy first of all!) But now the elections are over. And the BfV, especially now that Maaßen has been removed (he was "blind on the right"), will get going again.

Nobody wants the risk of allying with a party that is dissolved for Nazism, so forget that AfD can be part of any coalition.

In reality they serve more to cheer up the German parliament, like the epic moment in which their speaker said that climate change in Germany has brought immigrants, and other fantastic animals, like c iting for damage to the sun because it warms too much oceans.

I mean, let's talk about these:

And the fight for the bikini is of primary importance:

I leave you with this gem, which historians of the future will take centuries to explain:

I mean, stuff Goebbels finds offensive to be associated with them.