Attention, NATO fall

Warning, NATO fall

There is a story that definitely was NOT due importance Italian newspapers, while they had a lot in German newspapers. Or the fact that Turkey was excluded from the F35 program by the Pentagon, and that Putin has already promised them to sell the new Russian gem, comparable to tell them to ‘F35.

For the record, the news is this:

the pentagon expels Turkey from the F-35 program

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/usa-werfen-tuerkei-aus-programm-fuer-f -35-kampfjets-a-1277837.html < / A>

Cui follow this:

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Nach-F-35-Lieferstopp-Strafe-Russen-bieten-Tuerkei-Kampfflugzeuge-an-4474112 .html

Russia offers the Su-57 to the Turks.

So, let’s go quietly. First of all, the decision, then the environment, then the meaning.

The decision razionale.I Turks bought the anti-aircraft missile system S-400 from Russia, and the US has lost the job. Some say they want to put pressure on the US and convince them to sell them the Patriot, but as a strategy does not work. By now the S-400 are being delivered, and the Turks can not change your mind. But the problem is not the economic loss: the problem is to know-how.

Any army first do exercises. In the military exercises fielding the system A (say F-35) and then opposes the B system (say S-400). The aim is to ascertain that the system A is effective against the system B (within certain time windows), and vice versa. At the end of integration, that is, it is assumed that

  • A sufficient number of F35 is able to operate in spite of the S-400.
  • A sufficient number fi F35 are killed the S-400

Of course, if this does not happen the weapons should be modified. But while it’s unlikely that the Turks never have the opportunity to work on changes ‘F35 (the only’ Italy has a production line where it is possible to do so), it is highly probable that they can operate at the radar and improvements to the guiding systems of the ‘S-400, up to make a lethal threat to the F35. Since the changes to a system such as S-400 are only possible with the Russian technical support, the most plausible result is that the Russians would learn to improve the S-400 until they are lethal for the F-35.

the Americans have therefore preferred to turn the knife on the other side. As Turkey, because of years and years of alliance is born plagued by CIA spies, they prefer that the Turks should perfect S-400 practicing against new Russian Jet, so hope to grasp some tricks observing the Turks. So the Americans are willing to accept that Russia will sell its latest-generation aircraft to Turkey.

So, the decision of the pentagon is rational in the short term. In the long term no, because Putin will ask guarantees to sell Jet, but we’ll see later. Let’s say that in the short term the decision is rational but naive .

Let’s go to the context.

If the decision is rational, then it is expected knowing the forces game. So the Turks knew that the US would ousted them from the F-35 program. As for selling the latest generation aircraft will ask Putin guarantees, to ask what guarantees will prompt.

is highly likely that Putin knows claw Turkey is haunted by CIA spies, especially in the Turkish armed forces, so far American allies. And then sell to the Turks the latest generation jet is really hard: we need a cleaning action of the Turkish armed forces is incompatible with the presence of Turkey in NATO.

But even if Turkey came out of the NATO , its institutions remain haunted by the CIA for years. To remove the problem, a crisis should be such as to impair relations. So much to make the communications of the American spies homeward almost impossible, or so much as to allow a massive presence of ‘FSB, which it would occupy then clean up the Turkey by the presence CIA (as far as possible)

In short this Turkish policy is a prelude to a major crisis between Turkey and NATO. We are at 1-2 years (at most) from ‘ Output of Turkey from NATO.

Can NATO survive the exit of the Turks? Um … just, bad and battered. I do not mean that Turkey is NATO’s central pillar, but now with a recalcitrant and Germany semiostile the NATO presence, suddenly losing the Black Sea, the Middle East and the Caucasus becomes a serious problem. Surely you get a crippled NATO and ineffective.

On the other hand, the Von der Leyen is president of the EU commission. We are talking about the defense minister who has connected to the German defense the defense systems of all neighboring countries, Visegrad Visegrad or not, with the exception (as you know) the French. In practice, the germ of European defense. The message seems clear.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/aus-fuer-lockheed-martin-bundeswehr-entscheidet -sich-gegen-us-tarnkappenbomber-f-35 / 23,936,388. html? ticket = ST-5642970-bIAC5FI1ED0WEeSacISj-ap4 ) with an intermediate solution pending the FCAS.

In practice, no one is betting more in NATO, and the Turks are trying to throw off making azzopparla .

But why NATO does not like anymore?

the answer is simple: it is a treaty. And Trump made it clear that US treaties use them as toilet paper. No one wants to believe in a treaty that President pluck live TV to self-satisfied, full of what is called “Ecoscheiße”. In Germany Once it is clear that the US president he impippa of the Treaties, the “comes out when he wants to,” the issue is not “whether the next president will be better”: NATO makes sense only in the long term perspective, and it is not possible to invest in a thing if it is feared that the next president is another Trump, who begins to tear up treaties on live TV.

In practice, nowadays no one loses time negotiating with Washington, unless (as happens for the Chinese) really have to. But, as evidenced by the ‘ increased Sales of Huawei ( https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3018309/huawei-increased-first-half-revenue-despite-us-trade -ban-chairman ) it is a short-term strategy, which forces the opponent to the negotiating table after and then does not work when you show ineffective,

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