Long term and short term.
I read today about the celebrations of big finance for public debt purchases. I personally believe that the ECB has made the right choice (and I don't see the famous "hawks" complaining in Germany), but what is missing is a long-term judgment on the 750 billion purchase maneuver.
The first point is that states are now authorized to make debt to support companies, which will then be purchased by the ECB. In the short term, the result will be to stabilize the European debt in times of crisis, to avoid events such as the Greek one or the 2011 Italian debt crisis.
But in the long term, a question must be asked: which countries will put their hands in their pockets and return 750 billion (and it is only the beginning) to the ECB? The reality is that so far this type of debt has never been repaid.
Curiously, those who complained that debt is a chain that obliges you to obey its holder today are silent. But they don't realize that there will be a very strong chain that will tie them to the ECB. And that will force them to obey the ECB.
Suppose that Italy makes a hundred billion euros of debt, or two, and that the ECB has them. From then on, the ECB will be able to "threaten" to throw the debt onto the market, effectively paralyzing the country's finances. What I am saying is that only the countries capable of repaying the debt will be able to have an economic policy autonomous from the ECB: all the others will be linked to the ECB by a double chain.
Anyone who says that a debt makes you servant to your lender is right: it is surprising that today they do not realize that they are transferring power to the ECB . And I would like to ask the leagues who are celebrating today how they intend to "get out of the euro", transforming the ECB into one of the many banks that can cut your legs if you don't obey.
The second point is welfare dependence. All this money that the states are going to have will then be distributed . The organ of the state that has the task of distributing wealth is called, in its many forms, "welfare".
It is clear that the states with the most widespread welfare will be the ones that will distribute wealth best, while the others will have to create or improve the existing distribution. But in the end, the result does not change: we are creating a parallel welfare, fueled by the ECB, initially from 750 billion euros.
I say initially because the figure is prudent: since the ECB does not want to be accused of "running out of ammunition", instead of allocating 1,500 billion immediately, it prefers to allocate 750, and in a short time another 750, and so on. In this way, the ECB "builds" trust, saying it has a lot of ammunition.
But creating a welfare of this kind, in fact, unites a country. A classic example is Germany, which in fact is made up of four "nations" (Rhineland, Bavaria, Swabia and Prussia) united by an impressive welfare system. By proceeding in this way in the EU, we are moving towards a "Germanization" of Europe.
A Europe similar to Germany is obtained: just as very uneven Länder signed a constitution and then remain united with the strength of an impressive welfare, Europe would be made up of countries that signed the Lisbon Treaty and then are united by an impressive European welfare.
Moral of the story, Europe is moving in the direction of being a "Bundes-Europa".
For this reason I strongly doubt the narrative that the Germans want to oppose this operation: in reality Europe is veering towards a German configuration, the one they are more used to.
After two or three 750 billion operations:
- No country will be able to free itself from the debt that binds it to the ECB.
- All countries will be cemented by this giant EU-funded Welfare.
This program is, in fact, the gravestone of any sovereignty. It is a step forward towards the Germanization of the continent.
But looking at it in the short term, Italian newspapers are shouting at "our wallet is safe".