The newspapers have already transformed the election of the President of the Republic into a sort of Sunday of the championship, but in the end the problem is not to understand whether or not Silvio is the next president, or to make predictions: the problem is understand why this is important.
We must therefore understand one thing: the President of the Republic in Italy has not a few powers. It has the right ones. For example, he signs the laws, he can refuse to do so, and he is the one who authorizes a government decree to be discussed in the chambers. He can also dissolve the chambers and send the country to elections if he wants.
It is essentially a very strong power: if the President says he does not sign a decree because according to him (after hearing the experts of the constitutional court) it is unconstitutional, then the chambers could "force it", but knowing full well that it will be canceled at short. Likewise, since the republic in its constitution recognizes international treaties, it could also oppose an anti-European law.
These are the reasons of those who want Draghi as president: with a similar role, it would be impossible (in the extreme case the president could dissolve the chambers) to make laws to leave the EU (as Borghi wants) or to disavow the Euro.
Of course, Draghi could not form the laws themselves, but for seven years he would have the last word against any "leaks forward" of various leaguers and sovereignists. For this reason, those who try to maintain the country's financial stability are tempted to elect him: with Draghi for seven years, the markets will be sure that there will be no odd ideas from the usual leaguers / Melonians of the case.
There are also those who are pushing for no, and there are many. This is because with the reform of the chambers wanted by the Grillini, the number of parliamentarians will be reduced, from 630 to 400 deputies and from 315 to 200 elected senators. This means that there are 230 deputies and 115 senators who are there like leaves in the fall. From the next elections their seats will no longer exist.
So there is the problem that by electing Draghi, Mario will have to leave office and then he goes to vote immediately (unless someone turns up to replace Draghi. Someone who looks like Draghi, and who does happy Draghi, the new president who has to appoint the prime minister). Since it is impossible to find him quickly, then he would go to vote. The problem, besides the scissoring on the seats, is the electoral system. What would you vote for?
With the law in force, the Rosatellum bis: it is a sort of 'overturned' Mattarellum, a mix between majority and proportional but where the proportional share reigns supreme: 64% of multi-member lists compared to 36% of single-member colleges. The threshold for both the House and the Senate is 3% at the national level for lists, while it is 10%, again at the national level, for coalitions. There will be a single ballot and no separate vote is allowed. There is the gender quota (60-40) and the possibility of a maximum of five multiple candidacies in the proportional lists, but also the possibility for a candidate to appear in both single-member and multi-member colleges. Finally, there is no indication of the 'head' of the coalition – that is, the candidate for premier – but the indication of the 'head' of the single political force is foreseen, and there is no obligation for the coalition to present a joint program. There are 20 constituencies for the Senate, one for each region, while 28 for the Chamber. The cut of the parliamentarians introduces a surplus of majority, with maxi colleges of about 900 thousand voters in the Senate.
What does it mean? Since the new electoral model has been shifted to proportional, it means that the cities are the masters, and the cities are normally less conservative / bigoted than the province, giving a certain respite to the progressive parties. So as you can understand, the right would like to have more time or something in return, like one of them as president.
From here you get to Berlusconi:
- if the right elected Berlusconi, Draghi would remain in the government and therefore there would be time to discuss a new electoral law that punishes the right less, or at least does not force them to become more centrist.
- if the Draghi government could not be forced to change the electoral law, the right would have Silvio Berlusconi himself as a guarantee.
- if the right elects Draghi, obviously Berlusconi leaves the scene, the next elections will be a massacre, and the next government will be centrist because of a small parliament and a very proportional system.
There are therefore different sides:
- the party of comfortable pigs, which Berlusconi represents to the fullest. Inside there are also grilline fringes, so the PD doesn't know who to trust.
- those famous 345 between deputies and senators who want to milk the state while remaining seated in the armchair, who would extend the mandate if Draghi remained where he is
- all those who are afraid of elections with a largely proportional system.
These three camps (which by cultural affinity are part of or close to the party of comfortable pigs) are for Berlusconi president.
But if Berlusconi were not there, or if he were swallowed by Valentina Nappi's ass, losing himself forever in the Einsteinian singularity that resides there, who would be the ideal candidate?
- it should be a guarantee for the right-wingers who know they are taking a toothless step with the proportional system. (Leaguers and fascists, if counted, are very few). So let's talk about a center-right "watchable" (Crosetto, Maroni, Casini, Bindi, Carfagna *? Binetti?)
- since a centrist government for the median voter theorem derives from a proportional system, it cannot be an extremist. (Casini, Bindi? Carfagna *?).
- from the left, everything always moves to get rid of someone who is unpleasant, or to save someone who is useless. (D'Alema, Finocchiaro, Bindi)
- for the grillini, anyone who is grateful enough not to rage against the four cats that will remain of M5S after the next election is fine.
* Carfagna must be excluded, I see that she is only 46 years old.
So things go, if not for Berlusconi, for a watered-down left-wing Christian Democrat, which frames both Bindi and Casini well, but also Finocchiaro (who was prodian), overcoming some resistance from the right.
There are also names that can be pulled out of the hat, but in the end they would be only clones, that is, they would change the names but in the end they would fall within the political identikit of Casini, Bindi, Finocchiaro. Perhaps Carfagna would be digestible, but as long as certain calendars run, no.
The trouble is that material support hangs on Berlusconi, which however has a strong risk: it would force the Draghi government to collapse, and would lead to the polls and a certain financial surge. In short, electing Berlusconi would be like discouraging the Draghi government, and in any case the composition of a vote for Berlusconi would not allow the government to continue.
So in the race there are Berlusconi on the one hand, (with the brake of not being able to guarantee the duration of the government) and characters like Bindi or similar Casini.
Draghi, honestly, has no one to back him up, unless common sense prevails, which rarely happens.
But we do not yet know the long-term effects of Covid, so maybe the parliament will amaze the world.