The cause of cognitive dissonance concerning the coronavirus is now known: the center-right, which aspired to an emergency government, wanted to create the emergency. And in the newspapers all the people who started talking about "the numbers tell us everything" joined without ever mentioning the right numbers.
Now, first thing: don't invent a strategy. The strategy follows the facts. If you have a lot of steel, you make a lot of steel weapons, otherwise you don't. Etc. So the point is that strategy is based on facts. Well.
Now let's go get some USEFUL numbers.
According to WHO, the mortality distribution of Coronavirus Cov (or Covid, depending on) is this:
Now, I wouldn't say, but these give you the strategy on a silver platter. What do they tell you?
- That there is a barrier that stops the coronavirus, and it is age.
- That the victims (that is, the people to be protected) are the elderly.
- That ultimately others risk little.
- That children under nine are practically safe.
So, we essentially have a problem with old people dying.
It's not a small problem, but if we characterize it this way we understand several things.
- That the people to be protected are the elderly and not the children.
- Geographical barriers don't work, but registry barriers do.
And it's a bummer, to tell the truth. It is a blow to the ass because in Italy, as in the whole West, the elderly are not very productive (they don't work) and spend little. Most of the active population is young.
So, the strategy is already in those numbers.
Protect the elderly.
And since they are not even productive, and are easily recognizable, you can safely ask the elderly (and if necessary enforce the police) to stay at home. Relatives or social workers will be able to bring them food, medicine, etc.
Others don't need it completely. I say "completely" because one per thousand of infections is not a small one anyway. Out of a population of 60 million people, excluding the elderly, IN THE "WORST CASE SCENARIO" , (100% of the infected population) those numbers make up 40 to 60 thousand "young" hospitalized patients. That health care can handle. And it's the worst case. But not knowing in advance how many people infect the infection, we can only think of the worst case.
To this we must add the fact that the data are mainly taken from China, a country that has a painful healthcare structure. (yes, yes, I know: "but the streets are clean." But they are not hospitals). In addition, like all epidemics, its expansion is based on meeting uninfected people on the way. So sooner or later there will be a peak and then the infections will slowly decrease.
Also, viruses change over time becoming less dangerous, so quarantine would give the virus time to mutate.
So, the numbers recommend one thing:
- Impose a curfew on the elderly.
- Assign family members / services the task of keeping them monitored remotely (chat, phone, whatever)
- Let the rest of the country live, which will suffer a manageable number of deaths.
I am not saying to open the hunt for the elderly: I am saying to PROTECT the elderly by keeping them at home. And to let everyone else live, obviously minimizing the risks (less crowded places, more teleworking, etc.).
Let me be clear, it is not a solution: the only solution to a virus is a vaccine.
But it's a STRATEGY.
The only one supported by numbers: the geographical barriers are useless, because the numbers show that the virus moves at very high speeds and is not affected by geographical barriers.
To protect the victims, it is necessary to protect the victims. Which in this case are largely (practically almost all) elderly and patients with diseases that weaken the immune system. Which is fortunate, since the elderly usually move very little, because they are no longer so much in the production chain, and because there are already structures made to assist them (familiar or not).
But these are the only numbers you won't see. Neither in the press, which talks about "r with zero", nor elsewhere, because politicians are too busy shitting shit on each other.
And this is normal: NOBODY reads the numbers.