Putin: everything goes according to plan …
… Only the Russian plans suck. After all, about sixty five-year plans have failed, in which they did not punctually reach the required quotas. And they reacted by changing the expected odds. So we shouldn't be surprised. But before commenting on the "nuclear fear", one thing needs to be clarified.
I have written many times that the tactic of the Western mass media is to constantly terrorize the population.
The principle is this: a terrified person has three choices, the famous three F. Fight, Flight, Freeze.
The first is combat, because it annihilates the threat. If you are not strong enough and cannot fight, you must escape. If you do not even know where to escape or you are not fast enough, the last chance is the "Freeze", that is, you hide in a hole, or you blend in and stay still.
Whenever the press terrifies the population, with threats that the population cannot fight, and from which it cannot escape, the population enters Freeze. No demonstrations, no protests, the population will put up with anything because they are afraid.
This is what they have been doing to you for years, between Covid, Wars, migratory waves and everything that "scares you".
So there was a need for some terror, while with the excuse of war they slaughter us with an inflation that existed even before the war, but anyway 'back in Freeze and not break.
But what does this mean? That you have to divide everything by ten, in the news about Putin trying to save his skin with a desperate move.
For one thing, all the talk about referendums and Russian military doctrine and Putin annexing those zones for the pretext of launching nuclear weapons are balls.
Putin does not need pretexts, he does not need justifications, if he wants to launch an atomic bomb he must give an order to just do it.
And to be told that there are no nuclear on standby. What does it mean?
Atomics are not kept in the fridge. When assembled and ready to use, they need very expensive maintenance. So what do you do? There are a thousand of them, and only fifty are on standby, that is, ready for use. The rest is disassembled, without ogive, whose fissile material rapidly decays.
The West, in theory, has ~ 7000 nuclear devices, but due to the cycle I am talking about, only ~ 600 are on standby (between USA, France, UK). That is, if you give orders to use them, you have them. Israel has 300 in its arsenal, so to speak, which means it has about thirty ready to use. We proceed in rotation, so that in a certain period of time all the weapons are reassembled, and thus put into maintenance and ready for use. IN this process, that is, during the checks some devices prove to be unreliable and are discarded to be repaired. Each tot, in rotation, the devices are reassembled, checked, etc etc.
Russia has about 6,000 nuclear weapons, but on standby it has… exactly zero . For obvious budget reasons. When nuclear weapons go from storage to standby, the secret services notice this, because their assembly and maintenance require activities that are easily visible from satellites. Centrifuges are hard to hide, and so on.
So far, the Russians have NOT put nuclear weapons on standby. So, if Putin orders tomorrow to use nuclear weapons, he will be told that it takes about a month to be able to launch them. And this is one of the reasons why he is so afraid of NATO approaching its borders: he cannot keep nuclear power plants on standby for budget reasons, and if someone launches nuclear weapons like that, all of a sudden, without notice, they are bitter cocks.
This image of Putin with his finger on the button, in my opinion, you have to get out of your head. It serves to put you in Freeze. It serves to scare you.
Forget nuclear war. The day Putin really wanted to do it and started taking it out of the freezer, you would notice it. Submarines that go to ports, etc etc.
His "offensive" is just buying time. The reason he lost wasn't that he didn't have enough men. The reason is your organization sucks. For the rest, it is since the invention of the machine gun that the number of men does not matter.
It is not true that it would launch nuclear weapons if someone bombed Russian territory. Posts behind the border have already been heavily bombed by the Ukrainians, only the Russians said "sabotage". BUT I repeat:
- Putin is a dictator. He has no need for an excuse to launch nukes.
- If he could, he would have done it already. But it didn't.
And I don't want to be told that Putin really thinks “ yes, I was massacred by those 150,000 men of the first wave, but I didn't use the atomic bombs because there is a resolution of the municipal administration that forbids it if they don't attack us “. They are lies. He doesn't need excuses or reasons to launch nukes. He is a dictator.
So now he's going to try to recruit 300,000 people and, if he can (if they don't break an arm, if they don't run away, etc.), send them to assault. Except that:
- It has no weapons. They are recycling Soviet tanks from the 1960s
- It has no ammunition. He is buying junk from North Korea and Iran.
- Money is running out and its heavy industry is paralyzed.
- The Chinese are not helping him.
What do you hope to do then?
It is now clear that Putin is afraid of only one thing. Of the population. If it insists on not using the term "war", if it does not put the nation in a state of general mobilization, if it recruits only in Asia to spare the Moscow bourgeois families, it is because it is afraid of the population. Those who fall from power die there.
So he has to see to be proactive, to be the one who goes on the attack. To be aggressive. And to buy time.
Let's clarify:
- Those who attack need to move over long distances, more than those who defend themselves. In the Ukrainian Winter, they can dream of it. Especially after announcing their intentions, the Ukrainians will now fortify themselves in muddy territory, as they did last winter. And Saint Javelin will do his job later.
- It'll take him months just to get the reservists back into shape. He'll have to equip and arm them. And we saw he wasn't good last time either.
- He has a secret service which cannot penetrate Ukraine. They got intoxicated with news of an attack on Kherson as Ukrainians amassed troops on the Kharkiv side. He has a blind secret service.
- Russian weapons proved inaccurate. They fired 50,000 rounds a day to do the same damage that the Ukrainian military does by firing 500 rounds. Because the Russian artillery travels 25/30 km, and completely loses precision. Among Westerners (and also Chinese) the standard is 70/80 km with an accuracy of 9/10 meters.
Under these conditions, an assault is just a bloodbath. But Putin is not thinking of getting there. Why'?
Why Turkey.
The Turks know very well that NATO barely tolerates them, and they know they are the number one problem. But they also know they are not replaceable. Unless Ukraine proved to be such a tough and strong fighter that they could replace the Turks.
Erdogan knows very well that if Ukraine survives the war, even without winning it but with a draw, it will join NATO the day after the signing of the peace treaty (NATO does not accept the entry of countries already at war). And he knows very well that, after the evidence they have shown us, Ukraine would be considered very capable of defending the southeastern side of Europe. Turkey would be replaced.
Tomorrow, they would be "expelled" from NATO in some way. So Erdogan will play the game of the fake peacemaker, with two purposes:
- Avoid a clear end to the war. The war, for Erdogan, could also last forever, and it wouldn't be too bad for him.
- Even if the war comes to an end, it must do so in a way that prevents Ukraine from joining NATO.
Putin only knows that he has to wait for Erdogan to produce an eternal, or at least very long-lasting, stalemate. A low intensity war, enough to pass as a war for Westerners, who would not allow Ukraine to join NATO, but not enough to worry Russian public opinion. Maybe send more Chechens to die.
Another thing he is hoping for is that the position of Westerners will soften with the winter. But with the nationalization of Uniper and the arrival of six regasifiers, its main customer does not seem in a position to end up on its knees. By now Europe has equipped itself, and who in one way and who in the other, we will hardly end up on our knees by him for gas.
On the other hand, waiting for the Italian elections also counts for little. Meloni is with the Ukrainians, and Salvini's position would also be a minority in the center-right. It is possible that this will give Orban some respite, but for putin there will be nothing but crumbs.
This terror also needs to be reduced. The center-right parties of today have already ruled the country, and even when Berlusconi and Putin were splitting the whore in Latvian, it doesn't seem that much has happened to the NATO alliance, or to Europe.
I'd say stop worrying. The "Captain" has already been in government, with the grillini, and it did not seem like a bolt of fascism. He just did some very loud little shit.
But what if Putin really uses nuclear power?
Good. We are therefore talking about tactical nuclear weapons launched by artillery and short-range cruise missiles. It depends on the power.
Launching a 5Kt nuclear power unit on a city is in fact equivalent to a carpet bombing. The same effect is obtained as with a very violent conventional bombardment, the opponent is forced to react with the same measures, but the tactical advantage of the destruction of a city is not so great.
But there is a small problem: "Kaliningrad". As long as there are missiles that can be armed with nuclear weapons, but not on standby and not really armed, that's okay. After all, it is Russian territory. But at the very moment when preparations to put nuclear weapons on standby were noted, Kaliningrad would be erased from the universe. It is too dangerous to exist. And since the missiles we are talking about are launched from trucks, this means that the whole of Kaliningrad and all its territory would disappear in a hell of flames just a second after Putin used a nuclear in Ukraine.
Why I repeat: if your enemy shows willingness and confidence in the use of theater nuclear weapons, Kaliningrad is such a disproportionate risk for NATO that it does not have the slightest chance of existing five minutes later.
Therefore, we exclude that Putin uses small weapons such as 4/5 Kt. It would be of no use on the ground, and would result in the immediate disappearance of Kaliningrad.
We go up to 10/15 Kt. Hiroshima power, so to speak. It is still a nuclear "tactical" and is equivalent to the carpet bombing of a large city. Here too, the carpet bombing of which city? If it explodes too close to the NATO border, apart from hell in Kaliningrad, retaliation would immediately be triggered. It means hitting Russian logistical targets, in Ukraine or just behind the border, with western cruise aircraft / missiles, perhaps with 4/5 Kt bombs, to clarify. Result for Putin: even worse. No conquests and a lot of damage. It also means Aegis' likely deployment in Ukraine, which Putin sees very, very badly.
Throwing these weapons on Ukrainian soldiers? If they are scattered in the muddy countryside, it is of little use. Although devastating in the city, a 10 / 15Kt bomb has limited power over troops, especially over a large territory:
Of course, if a division is moving all together it could damage a lot. But in itself, for how the Ukrainians fight, which are scattered over the territory, there would not be many chances to use it.
More powerful weapons remain, which would however be considered strategic and would get the brutal response, that is, Moscow and St. Petersburg in smoke immediately. Putin does not want this, for the simple reason that the Russian anti-missile defense is a joke: for this reason Putin continues to threaten by showing weapons to attack (which are then prototypes), but hardly mentions his defenses.
Ultimately, I would say that there is no reason to lock yourself in a hole and be paralyzed with fear.
If you want to take to the streets to protest, do it . After all, remember that the Russian revolution began in the middle of the world war.
And no one had any qualms.