Stories input and output.
In the world of postmodernism, the only paradigm to take into account is that of the Semblance . The statue is a creation narrative that replaces the reality, and acquires the force of reality as much as patently false. (Berlusconi worker, Catholic Salvini, the government crisis in Italy, etc).
And if you look closely you discover that Berlusconi is obviously not a worker, which Salvini does not follow Catholic morality at any point, and that in Italy is the usual balance of power in the hands of the usual. But one of the features of the statue is this: buy realism based on his blatant lies.
Today we add another simulacrum: the “crisis in Germany.”
In fact, Germany has reached one or two years ago the record of exports, so a lack of growth can not be defined “crisis”. But the problem is that in the postmodern world we build a simulacrum to hide a real phenomenon. Berlusconi worker had been built to hide Berlusconi billionaire Catholic Salvini is built to hide a pig without conscience, the crisis of government is built to hide the effects of government policy, and so on.
What’s going on, therefore, in Germany? And because it serves a simulacrum?
The point is (but I speak extensively later) that Trump has destroyed the world trade, causing a sudden drop in trade on a global scale. Obviously, countries that export a lot (such as China, Germany, but also Italy) will suffer as a decrease in exports.
But the real problem lies in exports, but in the surplus. That is, if you export a lot but then imported even more, you are in the US conditions, whose industry is very competitive, which causes a massive import from abroad.
Thus, Germany has not so much a problem of increasing the ‘export (could be a happy country with current levels) but maintain a high trade surplus. He needs it because a past population boom is going to cause an increase in pension expenditure (in truth, the phenomenon has already begun).
In short, Germany has the problem of keeping up the surplus. As the trade surplus is the difference between export and import, and exports has an uncertain fate, the government can only do one thing: decreasing imports.
It is a budget in two columns, and if you can not increase revenue can only decrease the exits. This is obvious.
How will they do? Oh, actually it began about six months after the arrival of Trump in power. How does Germany to protectionism? It has several ways of doing it, which he’s added one. Those classics are:
- The state (in various forms) holds significant stakes in many major industries. It can put pressure because “will buy German”. is the classic method, and suddenly foreign suppliers begin to lose the races.
- The state imposes (on different layers, mean central reasons, city) a series of certifications and regulations that require certifications. Since the branching of certifications is tremendous, many small foreign companies give up.
- The state reform. For example, you are talking about a health care reform, the so-called Krankenkasse. It is a reform that, if it goes ahead, it could greatly reduce the import of biomedical products. How are things with high value added. The same applies to other high-spending areas, such as schools, transport and more.
- The state preaches a strict policy impacting the entire public service. And if there are taxes on transport (= Diesel), then the player who has the highest price. An example of this is below: < / Ul>
@CDU hält an der Schwarzen Null fest. Wir haben sie erfunden und wir werden sie weiter verteidigen. Schade, dass falsche Überschriften gesetzt werden und sich weiter verbreiten. Ich habe die in einem Interview lediglich geltende Rechtslage zitiert. https://t.co/lPvXfAJZ6A
& mdash; A. Kramp-Karrenbauer (@akk) August 15, 2019 dass falsche Überschriften gesetzt werden und sich weiter verbreiten. Ich habe die in einem Interview lediglich geltende Rechtslage zitiert. https://t.co/lPvXfAJZ6A
& mdash; A. Kramp-Karrenbauer (@akk) August 15, 2019 dass falsche Überschriften gesetzt werden und sich weiter verbreiten. Ich habe die in einem Interview lediglich geltende Rechtslage zitiert. https://t.co/lPvXfAJZ6A
& mdash; A. Kramp-Karrenbauer (@akk) August 15, 2019
In this classic has added a new opportunity, which went on in the Bundestag debate on a package of laws “green”. The laws “green” were found to be a possible protectionist instrument: only think about food incentives to “kilometer zero.” It is a protectionist law to 100%, but passes as law “For the environment”. Even block of low-quality plastic products (which are normally all ‘foreign products, mainly in Poland) such as plastic bottles and sportine, to say. The tax on meat seems an ecological tax, but if you think it is: a pig only 30% ends up as meat counter. The rest goes to industrial use. So if you increase the VAT from 7% to 19%, as is the proposal, that ‘8% increase becomes, the producer, a ~ 2.6%.
But if you export the Parma Ham in Germany, all the weight is pork. It ‘s really weighs 8% l’ 8%. If we add a price increase on oil transport and the “privilege” to the zero km, I doubt that in two years I can still find Parma ham from Aldi Süd.
The package of Green laws also are He strives to act on energy, but just have to dig a bit and there are the protectionisms. First, 64% of the energy produced in Germany comes from renewable. It remains a 35% from coal and natural gas. Methane comes from abroad, and coal is mined in areas east of the country, where labor mainly Polish and Czech. Taxing quest ‘ means bringing energy producers to buy renewable energy, but in Germany the game wind and solar to win the usual Siemens & co.
Once it is clear that Germany has already moved in order a series of levers to reduce imports, with the exception (I imagine) of semi-finished serving his industry, now the thing you have to ask yourself is: how long will it last? How long we will have to get used to a Germany that does not matter anymore?
Here you have to go back to Trump: The process has started him. How long will the damage it has done? Why is this: the German government plans a lot, and probably planned countermeasures that are long-lasting because the damage done by Trump to international trade.
So, There are bad news. The problem with Trump was not treated to tear up one after another. It would not be the first president who does. The problem is the justification that he claimed.
Although some treaties have been torn because Obama had signed them (and that’s it, something that does not reassure anyone), the remainder was torn by saying “since we do not agree, then we tear them”. But the problem is that when those treaties were made, agreed . As a result, seen in perspective, Trump said that the US stracceranno any treaty can, as soon as it will give the “quid pro quo.” Think: it’s as if I should make a purchase contract with a supplier, saying that when the supplier sends the goods the contract is sacrosanct, , but the rag when you send me the bill.
What happens to me if I do such a thing? In regular trading it happens that I’ll have to pay cash and in advance. In the political world that happens trading stops. No one faces a 5-year contract, because any treaty to serve as Under the contract may no longer exist. And the probability is very high. In the words of the Iranian president “to negotiate with the Americans it is a waste of time, so comes another president and the waste treated.” It is not the only one to think so: the negotiation strategy of the Chinese, based Avanti-back, it is the answer to this problem.
Trump so he not only ” how long? The damage caused by Trump and the nationalists will stay for about a generation. It means that we will use about 20 years to return to the old “the deal is a deal.”
This cycle of “Germany, which recently bought”, in short, will last about two decades. Instead of wondering how to stop it, would be better to ask how to live with it.
Because if I understand the logic of things German, germany low-import is here to stay.