It does not take a genius to notice a robust change of narrative in the Italian and international press, and to discover that in the new narrative "Europe is burning with the desire to start a new cold war, if only it were not for the German assholes who do not want to" .
It is a narrative that responds to the needs of the new owner (Biden), for whom Europe is fine united only to give orders only once and not have to repeat them 26 times. And since Biden is a faded photocopy of Obama, Biden will try to do the same things that Obama tried to do, and failed.
But I'll talk about this later. The thing that is perplexing is the cognitive dissonance of the Italians.
When you talk about following the US in a harsh cold war against Russia and China together, are you the same people who whimper at the turnover lost in the sanctions against Putin?
Do you have any idea that a cold war today would cut off ALL the turnover you have with Russia and China? To answer this question, we need to ask ourselves what the last Cold War was like for Italy. In that period Italy always kept its foot in two camps: the PCI had one foot in Russia, and ensured a certain import / export, while the DC had a good foot in the US, and ensured exports to the USA. A comfortable cold war, in which the USA asked Italy only for military bases, since a conscript army was certainly infiltrated by the PCI, that is, by the Russians, and the Americans did not trust.
But this cold war is NOT the same thing. There is no longer the PCI that can keep open commercial contracts with Russia and China, and Beijing does not need to import as it happened with the USSR.
But there is one more interesting thing to note: if for Italy the cold war was a very "smart" walk (the smart one that some see as a coward), for Germany it was a horrible period of divided country, broken families, Stasi, and walls in Berlin. It was the period of the RAF and the Östpolitik. (which worked much more than you think, given that the Soviet empire begins to go in fraction precisely in Berlin and Poland, the countries invested by Östpolitik).
But the point is that the cold war for Germany was not (and is not remembered as) that drama of Don Peppone and Camillo, where you could keep one foot on one side, one foot on the other, send companies to trade with the USA and Coop to trade with the USSR. Germany has a VERY different memory of that time.
It goes without saying that Germany has a very different opinion regarding a cold war. And he won't follow Biden down this path, whatever leadership Berlin has.
I don't expect the US to understand this: for them Europe is a continent of vassals, and they expect everyone to follow their orders. For example, the Germans will NEVER shut down NorthStream II. And if they do it AFTER Merkel, it won't be to buy gas from the USA: it will be to retrace Angela's steps and get the nuclear power plant program back on track. (which, however, are still open because turning them off takes time).
when Macron says that in the aftermath of Merkel Russian gas must be eliminated (hoping that energy will be bought from its nuclear plants), does he know that it is faster and cheaper for the Germans to resume with the nuclear plants, which are still in operation?
Moreover, the debates on the return to nuclear power and on Merkel's decision have started again here.
It is true that in Germany controversy rages over the management of Covid, but if someone listened to them well, they would hear one thing: “it would have been better if we had done it alone instead of relying on the EU”. The thing that is escaping (and not by chance) the commentators is that Merkel is criticizing herself for having entrusted to the EU something that they would (according to them) have done much better on their own. And when Bayer (shortly) starts producing Curevac's vaccine, with all the industrial capacity it has, these rumors will not die out.
Not to mention the Sputnik speech: when it became clear that the British were seizing doses of the vaccine produced in the EU and destined for the European market, Merkel ordered Sputnik to arrive in Europe, and it was the German authorities who smoothed out the road to Ema. But you have to understand one thing: Putin asked for something in return. And it doesn't take long to understand that North Stream II is a certainty, exactly from the moment the first dose of Russian vaccine is injected into the first German.
The answer to my objections is that "but now Biden is here and he will fold them", which sounds a lot like "we have an ally" of ancient memory. The problem is that Biden will not succeed, as Obama did. Obama has been trying to isolate Germany from Europe for nearly eight years. But the result was not positive, because an isolated Germany refused to participate in any European financial program, (as it is obvious that it is: whoever is isolated closes, including wallets), but especially the Obama period for Germany was not bad at all, neither economically nor as an export.
And it was the period of the export record. Now, if someone wants to repeat the same mistake with a president who will NOT last eight years, is less authoritative than Obama and doesn't have the same soft power , go ahead. But do not complain about the consequences: isolating Germany now and discrediting Merkel means that Merz could still give a big blow to the tail.
and if it happens, you can say goodbye to the recovery fund.
You are playing with fire, only to serve an "ally" who does not have the strength, nor the duration, to carry out what he proposes to do.
We need to understand one thing: regarding the Recovery Fund, the game of approving national plans will begin immediately after the German elections in September. For this reason, those who opened the crisis thought they could go to the elections. But if in the next elections in Germany the CDU wins only in the areas of the Merz faction, plus Bavaria, what you will get is that the recovery will fail, or the numbers will be rewritten: after all, Italy is no longer the nation with more deaths from covid. The proportions have changed. And someone might question the slices of the pie again.
If you remember, Italy had the largest share (209 billion) because at the time it was the country most affected. But now there are others, who have a respectable number of victims. It could be renegotiated.
Isolating Germany now, ie repeating Obama's policy, means bringing it back to being the Germany of the Obama period. Do you remember? No debts in common, no Eurobonds, etc. And here the Italian cognitive dissonance returns again:
do you really want an isolated Germany that starts to re-discuss the distribution of the Recovery funds in the light of the new death toll?
Do you think France would defend you if someone proposed to recalculate the 209 billion in light of the fact that other countries also had many deaths (when the recovery was approved the most devastated area was Italy)? Look at how many deaths France has now, and you will find that they would only have to gain.
In supporting the American narrative, Italy gives further proof of that cognitive dissonance (I want one thing but I think its opposite) that characterizes the press:
- they want Biden to isolate Germany but they want the recovery fund without re-discussions of quotas.
- they want to go to a cold war but they don't want the harsh export sanctions against Russia and China.
- they want to redo Obama's policy in Europe without remembering that the German reaction was a long period of austerity.
An example is the ease with which the story of Van der Leyen who puts Irish border controls and everyone pissed at her, Boris first, has been bought because it would be a violation of the Brexit agreements. . The story would be credible, were it not for the fact that …
that Brussels has not yet signed Brexit.
Boris cannot be pissed off if "Brexit is not respected", because the EU has not yet signed it. And we read of a European Parliament that is not so happy to do so. How someone in London can make a big splash in Brussels, at least until the agreement is signed, only the drug addicts who write in Italian newspapers know.
The truth is that that little flash convinced Boris the bold to give us a break on some anti-EU narratives he was using at home. And you just have to read the English newspapers to see the difference.
But the problem is that: which PCI do you have in this future cold war, that is capable of keeping Italy with one foot in two wards (China-Russia on one side, USA on the other), while also keeping another foot in the Recovery Fund?
This is the cognitive dissonance you suffer from, because isolating Germany in Europe and losing the Recovery Fund, or seeing it downsized, and at the same time starting a cold war with a collapse in exports to the east, for Italy is not exactly a panacea. And if you think that Biden has no chance of winning this cold war, as Obama did not, and that he will be remembered as "Obama's clone with the smallest cock", is it really worth it?
The question is: are American asses really that good to lick?