Covid and Evolutionary Times, II.
When I wrote the post on how we are handling the virus badly , by implementing slower measures of the time it takes to change in a useful sense, I thought I had considered the "worst case scenario". In fact, the virus seems even faster than I thought.
If this discovery is confirmed, apparently the virus reacted to the British vaccination campaign by producing a mutation that is not affected. Since from the point of view of the mutation no one is vaccinated, its spread is fast.
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Actually, the B.1.525 is the English variety, the mutations of concern are Q677H and F888L, which as I had hypothesized change the spike proteins that the vaccine covers.
if these mutations spread, and you don't see why they shouldn't, the vaccination campaign could be useless even before it's over.
Regarding the time I had assumed, it is surprising how long the time of 15 months was compared to what happened. Actually, the mutation came first. But the point is that, if what is said is true and this mutation started in December 2020, as it is a mutation of the English variant, this becomes worrying. I don't know if the mutations are to be considered statistically Bernoulli (is the fact that it is a mutation of the English variant relevant or could it happen to any variant?), So once again the statistical methods are not easy to choose.
But it does not matter. Even if it were a mutation of the original primal strain, it would have taken 11 months to be born. If it's a mutation from the English strain, he's put in about four.
do you really plan to finish a global vaccination campaign in 11 months to 4 months?
Because if we don't, somewhere in the world we will see the variant that ignores the vaccine arrive.
Now the pharmaceutical companies will come and tell us "don't worry, the RNA-based vaccine takes a moment to adapt to the new virus". Already'.
But as it is based on spike proteins, it will take TWO vaccines, one against spike A and one against spike B. So let's start with a SECOND vaccination campaign, but before it's over we have Covid Spike C.
I would say that this new mutation, if confirmed, should make everyone think.
- it was said that the mutations make the virus less lethal. Apparently, not THIS virus.
- it was said that vaccines are the solution. Not for THIS virus.
The truth is, we need to change our strategy.
The solution to this virus is not a vaccine: it is a CURE.
Otherwise we will spend the next N years in a continuous vaccination campaign which is already obsolete before we finish.
If, as I have already written, the implemented strategies are not sustainable (politically and economically) in the long term, here we are talking about strategies that are not even WORKING in the medium and long term!
The only strategy that appears to work would be:
- isolate the elderly and at-risk people in homes. But REALLY isolate.
- find a way to deliver their food, medicine and everything to their home.
- in the meantime, focus your efforts on CURE.
there are already ALL the rationale to understand that vaccines are not the solution: the virus changes faster than the global vaccination campaign and changes in ways that make the vaccine useless.
However, it always affects the same way, ie infection -> inflammation -> immune crisis. Of course, it could also change in this, but since inflammation and immune crisis are reactions of the human body, it is less likely that a mutation can silence inflammation. If he did, then nobody would die anymore.
But I repeat: we already have all the feedback, and in logical terms these feedbacks tell us that what we are doing makes no sense. All we know is that we probably already have a mutated virus that is unaffected by the vaccine we have.
Why can't we question the fact that vaccines are the solution IN THIS SPECIFIC CASE, and invest in treatment?
How many people have to die first?