I see a lot to unpack here.
While fiddling with unlikely scenarios, I think it's time to say a few words on the American elections. Because everyone who puts their hopes on Biden hasn't understood some things. One does not need to be explained, the second requires explanations.
The thing that doesn't need to be explained is simple: Trump is the America of Today, and a substantial part of one of yesterday. Of course, you didn't want to see it yesterday (when you didn't go to show White Trash but only the good neighborhoods of Manhattan, when you talked about black ghettos but not about the boundless expanses of white poverty, etc.), you didn't want to see the American ignorance because you were too busy magnifying the IVY League schools, and therefore you did not understand a very simple thing.
Trump is the American. Not the "average" one, an expression made to get out under the illusion of being better than the average. Trump is the American, period. Of course, you know Americans who are not like Trump. But I didn't say that Trump is like the American. I said Trump is the American. Your American friend who is not like Trump is Trump. Because Trump's personality is made up of America. And america is made of the same stuff as Trump. Who is ALSO a dissembler and an actor: if you ask him to play the part of Ocasio Cortez, and pay him enough (and it suits him) from tomorrow you will have the best Ocasio Cortez ever, with blond hair and orange skin. Trump is ALL it takes for Trump to make money. Just like any American. Even your friend "who is not like Trump": he is not like Trump because it suits him. So it's Trump.
Which is why, whether Trump wins or not, nothing will change.
But let's get to the point that needs to be explained. Biden is as populist as Trump.
I know there is an idiosyncrasy in saying that there is a populist left or a leftist populism, but I don't care. Left populism exists, has always existed, and proposes the same solution as right-wing populism: "just give ALL possible power to us, who are like you, and the problems WILL DISAPPEAR". (Because the populist doesn't solve problems, he makes them disappear ).
But let's start from the beginning. The USA is today the most polarized country in the world. But the point is many say it, BUT NOBODY EVER COUNT THE POLES.
The US political poles are TWO. There is no political monopoly. So it is useless to say that there is an extreme polarization, and then to say that if Trump is from one pole, the other pole is "moderate" and "believes in multilateralism". They are whores.
The truth is that Trump is one of the two poles, radicalized, extreme and unilateralist, because there is an opposite pole, equally polarized, radicalized, extreme and unilateralist.
Obviously the two poles seem to be the opposite of each other: but this always happens when you have a positive pole and a negative pole.
The problem is that Biden is NOT a moderate, he is not a "centrist", and he cannot be. It can't be because in a polarized system the poles are TWO, and Biden is one of the two poles.
Of course, a moderate image is built because the US Democrats miss the good times of the "bipartisan", but I would like to remind you that in the days of the "Bipartisan" there was a Democrat in power. So they are moderate … but it is "moderate" when we are in power , they seem to say.
In reality, two poles collide: one that says "I am the Nation" (Trump) and one that says "I am democracy" (Biden) . Both statements are polarizing, polarized, exclusive and extreme. For this the system is polarized: there are two poles.
Of course, the US radical left distrusted Biden because he wasn't Sanders, distrusted Sanders because he wasn't Ocasio Cortez, and distrusted Ocasio Cortez because he wasn't Lenin. He also distrusted Lenin because he wasn't enough Ru Paul, but this is another point because understanding who the hell is the reference leader of that area is practically impossible.
But this apparent divorce from the American far left is not substantial: it is functional to the image of "moderate" that Biden wants to build around. Reason why he did not want Ocasio Cortez as number two, replacing it with his expendable clone which is Harris.
In fact, in everyday life, Biden's militants try to convince the radicals to vote for him: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3Vah8sUFgI . A sign that it is an apparent divorce. What is not said is that when a far left base votes for you, then to hold the senate you will be forced to please any senator who fears losing his place in the next local elections if you lose the support of the radical left.
In short, Biden and Trump are the two POLES result of an extreme polarization of politics. If polarization was the problem, Biden won't solve it.
But there is a second point for which Biden will have to remain as polarized as Trump. The first is that on the other side of the Pacific there is a country whose leader has asked for lifelong power to kick the ass of the US, which you can't do in 5 years. So there is a strategic polarization outside the US. It was ALSO created by Trump, of course, but not only. (the Chinese have put in theirs).
The second point is that Trump's voters, first of all supremacist groups, will not disappear into thin air. And to stop them, assuming and not allowed that the US police obey Biden (otherwise they will have to use the armed forces), hard ways will be needed. Which requires a very polarized consensus.
There is no way, without an armed confrontation and a clear winner, to restore such a polarized country to democratic normality: since Biden will not be able to eliminate the radical left, the only possible "depolarization" is that against the radical rights. But a left government that demolishes the radical right is not a return to moderation, it is an invitation to escalate. Or at the very least, to further polarization.
The transition from right-wing to left-wing populism, from the point of view of the "allies", is not the return to normalcy that one wants to believe.
First of all, this is not the end of "America First". The problem behind America First is simple: American industry is no longer competitive. Before, Americans accepted to import nearly 800 billion industrial goods from Europe (and this tells us how competitive the US industry is) because they had technological supremacy in the IT world. But as China grows, their technological supremacy is collapsing. Apple will also be Apple, but most of the cell phones on the market are made in Asia. Now Asia is also growing in the field of network devices, and the only solution that the US has is, in fact, a veto that leaves the field open to Ericsson and Nokia Reti, two European companies. A sign that even in this field, the US industry no longer excels. US universities no longer attract Chinese students, because Chinese ones are better. And they are starting to attract students from Europe and India. Green business would exist, but Trump has stopped everything. The result is that Chinese and European companies are beginning to dominate the electric car market, while Tesla is stuck in the order of one hundred thousand vehicles produced per quarter.
How, exactly, can Biden's Multilateralism bring jobs to the US, if such multilateralism exists? Biden will have the same problem as Trump, that of returning high-paying jobs to the US.
Because after promising work and social justice to everyone, what is expected is that you do what you promised. And how will they do it with multilateralism? The Chinese will not change course: they have decided to aim for technological independence , and after being burned once they will certainly not bet on the probability that another Trump will not return. With whom should Biden's USA do it, “multilateralism”? With the Turks? With the Russians? With who?
The truth is that Trump's policy was not that of “Trump”, it was that of a country stripped of a stock market capitalism made up of pigs without conscience. Also in this sense, Trump is the American of today. A fake billionaire, whose lifestyle does not reflect his ability to generate income.
Biden inherits the same nation as Trump, which demands the same things. Who wants the same things: back to the good times. The good times change: Trump's voters want to go back to Reagan's time, while Biden's to Clinton's. But is there really that much difference between a ninety-year-old trying to go back to 20, and one trying to go back to 30? Aren't they both condemned to the same pathetic failure?
In reality, Trump will win anyway. He will win because he is the American, and therefore Trump is also Biden. Both are called upon to do the same thing: bring labor and industry back to a country that imports goods into practically every sector until it has a negative trade balance in practically every manufacturing area: a country with the worst manufacturing industry in the West. .
Biden and Trump are two names of the same thing, an America that lives beyond its means.
The result of these elections changes absolutely nothing. Both Biden and Trump are America. I mean, they're the same thing.