Israel-Palestine, post ten years.

I generally post every ten years on the Middle East issue, for a simple reason: it is a cost-engineered war, made for the economy of scale, and therefore it repeats itself cyclically, over several periods. or less regular.

What do I mean by saying that war is cost-engineered?

Imagine having a neighbor who occasionally grabs a water balloon, fills it with paint, and throws it on the front of your wall.

Then you repaint the facade, but this costs you all the time of assembly and disassembly of the scaffolding, plus its rent.

Clearly, if instead of a water balloon ten times a year, he threw ten water balloons all at once, you would save a lot because you would only have to rent and assemble your scaffold once.

Here, the point is this: to engineer a war of friction for costs, allowing economy of scale.

The script has been repeated, always identical, for years.

• Hamas / Sarcazzochi reorganize themselves under the watchful ears of the Israeli secret services, who collect a list of targets to be hit.
• At some point, when the target list is optimal, "provocation from Israel" arrives.
• The Palestinians see us red and start firing missiles ad minchiam and doing all the useless bullshit they always do.
• The Israelis, for a short but intense period, round up the reservists, start the engines of the entire fleet of planes, and bomb night and day, having a very large list of targets.
• With the list of targets finished, Israel stops and "negotiates".
• Go back to the beginning of the algorithm for the next round.

Why is Israel doing this? Because the principle of asymmetric warfare is that the defender's costs are much higher than that of the attacker. And the Palestinians are fighting an asymmetrical war.

For example, a missile that intercepts a stovepipe rocket like the Palestinian ones, before Iron Dome, cost about $ 300,000, now it costs only $ 50,000.

Although the disproportion is still huge, Iron Dome is in charge of calculating the likely location of the stovepipe missiles, which are very inaccurate. Since it only fires at those that would fall in populated areas, the ratio of the cost of the Iron Dome system to that of stovepipe missile launches is further reduced. Although a stovepipe missile still costs much less than an Iron Dome missile, the report is now financially sustainable for Israel.

The same goes for aviation. Israel has about 160 fighter-bombers. Keeping them all on standby, let's say standby 60 (ready in an hour), has a very high cost. On the contrary, if there are normally 10 on standby and the others are only overhauled (ready in 4 hours), the cost collapses.

The same goes for the cost / mission. If I raise a plane to shoot down a single target, the cost per target is very high. If I raise a plane (with all the logistics and strategic support) to hit 10 targets, the cost per target drops a lot.

Moral: having a large list of targets ready to hit it is possible to greatly reduce the cost per target.

The same goes for the generic cost of warfare: continuous warfare has immense costs, because it is necessary to keep all reservists warm, because it is necessary to keep all military infrastructures on very tight standby, and because to keep civil society ready to jump in a shelter and staying away from crowded places comes at a cost.

On the contrary, if we can concentrate the warfare in a moment of very high intensity, at the end of which the enemy will return home to lick their wounds and rebuild, we can contain the damage to a relatively short period. Also because, if the fight lasts too long, the enemy has time to get some people and some equipment to safety.

The algorithm I showed above repeats itself with impressive regularity, so I take it for granted. So if we want to understand what happened, we can say that:

• Israel has had, through the services, a fairly long list of targets to hit. "Long enough" means that it optimizes the duration of the operations and their intensity. "Optimize" means that through economy of scale it brings down the cost per single operation.
• There are no other reasons why they provoked the Palestinians in the plain of the mosques, other than the fact that Israel needed a war NOW, in order to optimize costs. There are no other reasons why what happened: the Israeli military has been engineered for cost for decades now.
• The weakness of the Palestinians is that their organizations are not only military, but also social, religious and political. So if they are provoked, especially on the religious side, they MUST react to maintain consensus. This makes them predictable and makes the algorithm described above possible. Idiots led by imbeciles.

Of course, if the Palestinians were to have a real military ruling class they could change the fate of the clash a lot, but they will not. Just as they will never learn to hold their nerve and not react to provocations, and just as they will never learn to use asynchronous warfare tools.

Let's say it works only because the Palestinians (and Arabs in general) have an idea of ​​war that dates back to the time of Carlo Martello.

There are no other explanations, stop racking your brains with absurd conspiracies or arguments from football fans: it is simply an industrial machine that works to carry out an ethnic cleansing following the economic principle of consolidating operations. That's all. He has always worked in the same way, with an almost boring mechanics, for 15 years now, and even before the pattern was visible, but without today's technologies (Iron Dome, and more) the patterns were less evident.

How long can this technique last? It has been working for about 15 years now, and my spannometric estimate will need another 30.

Why am I saying this? Because at the end of each operating cycle, the Palestinians have lost something. Kilometers of land there, houses over there, a settlement there, and so on.

At this rate, if the algorithm operates in this way for another thirty years, the Palestinian problem will be solved. Ultimately, the Israelis have learned to industrialize warfare and ethnic cleansing.

From who they learned it seems obvious.

But in Germany it can't be said, so I'm not saying it.

See you in 10 years, to say the same thing, but with far fewer Palestinians around the Middle East.

And this is also the reason why I don't do more than one post every 10 years on Palestine and Israel: it is an industrial cycle, engineered for costs, which has little to say and even less to teach.