Pryp “jat’ (AKA Chernobyl)
When I say that there is a very high risk that the war in Ukraine (which the US is making more and more likely for geopolitical convenience ) will trigger nuclear problems or be fought with nuclear weapons, I receive a lot of skepticism.
So I decided to show something.
I repeat the map with the political map, for convenience:
What happen? It happens that in the event of a Russian attack, there would be two invasion directives, if the aim is to reach the capital Kiev: one from the north, passing through Belarus, and one from the east. The problem is that Russia claims that the Dnieper River is a "natural border": the problem is that Kiev (the capital) is right on the border, and you can imagine how wise it is to leave the capital on the border.
The map I put above shows the swampy conformation that the river has, at least up to Chernobyl, the old power plant that needs a steel dome to not disperse any more radiation.
then, looking at the maps it doesn't take long to understand where the two directions of the invasion really pass. The first would pass through the north-east part: this is because immediately after Chernobyl the river is easier to ford, while south of Kyev it thickens and becomes difficult.
The directrix coming from the north cannot get too close to Poland, Romania and other NATO nations. Consequently it would skirt the river: being tactical troops, the swamp could even help them.
In practice, it is certain that there will be fighting around Chernobyl.
And they will not be just any fighting: we are talking about the road leading to Kiev, that is, the city that the Ukrainians will defend tooth and nail.
In a nutshell: the Chernobyl forest is located on two of the three mandatory directions of the possible Russian assault, and will inevitably be hit by the most ferocious battles, those made to defend Kiev.
Another nonsense attributed to the Kremlin on which many experts nestle is that "Russia considers the Dnieper River as its natural border". Now, the Russians have a lot of flaws, but they're not fools. Take a good look at the map above: the river makes a shift towards the east, until it reverses and to point towards the west.
This "tip", this ledge, for the Russians would be a strategic nightmare. If they invaded Ukraine to the point of making the Dnieper a natural border between Russia and Ukraine, no attack on a southward route could cut off a very important slice of territory, up to the point of isolating Krimea. No Russian general will ever be so stupid as to consider the Dnieper as "a natural border". It is natural, but it would hardly be a border.
Moreover, having the Dnieper as a natural border would leave the Ukrainians an area exposed to the sea. Not even here they are that stupid.
The truth is that, if we want to be sensible, the Russians will aim to reach Moldova, to make it a buffer state that separates it from Romania, that is, from NATO.
I know, it's funny: when I wrote “Other Robots” in 2004 I had imagined something like this (a war in Moldova), and the protagonist was Putin himself, who had become Tsar and had inherited power. But I had put the war 80 years into the future.
Apparently, I was optimistic: it's happening NOW.
And if it happens NOW, Chernobyl and Pryp "jat" are a problem. It is a marshy area, not very suitable for the movements of wagons. It is a question of waging an infantry war with sporadic but very violent artillery interventions, and aerial bombardments on the troops.
Already "artillery" and "bombing of troops" means that there is a risk that a stretch of forest that has been radioactive since 1996 will catch fire. In short, everything that burns becomes a radioactive cloud.
Two, imagine you are the commander of a regiment. You must be a danger to the Russians, but you don't want to be bombed. So what are you doing? Go to Pryp ”jat '.
The Russians will not want to get mad in a cabbage of urban fighting in a semi-deserted area but full of buildings. But they won't want to bomb either, at least for the first few periods.
The problem is that if you want to reach Kiev that area has to be cleaned up, otherwise you risk having your regiment behind you. A salient. 300/400 km from home. No good.
When we talk about Pryp ”jat 'we are talking about an area that MUST be cleared (from the Russian point of view) to avoid a salient during the taking of Kiev. But it is a marshy area, difficult to clean up, and the Ukrainian regiments would avoid the artillery by placing themselves near the plant.
And if now you put yourself in the shoes of a Russian attacking, with a long umbilical cord (ie far from his rear). You are in command of a regiment and if you ask yourself where to go you will never choose a swamp far from any road and covered with trees, where you will be targeted by artillery and will die on mines.
You will go to the parts of Chernobyl, because obviously there are roads built by the international project for the reactor dome (and they are unlikely to be mined), and you may think that the artillery will not hit right there. Sure there will be Ukrainians, but to avoid subsequent highlights you MUST clean up that area.
We can rest assured that Chernobyl (Pryp "jat ') will be involved in the clashes.
In any case, then, that war will be nuclear in some way .
But now put yourself in Putin's shoes. He promised a quick victory, but the main and best of the Ukrainian armed forces hid in the swampy forests north of Kiev, in order to defend and undermine it following a possible capture.
The war in the swamps is stinking, in the wooded swamps even worse, and it could last for years. Cleaning up such a territory is not easy, especially if it is mined. The Russians learned this in their blood during the wars in Finland.
But you are forced to take those swamps because if the Ukrainian infantry crowd there, they threaten your take of Kiev.
But it will cost you a mountain of the dead. But you can't afford a mountain of dead. What are you doing?
You have to fold the Ukraina, and fast. But you know they won't fold easily.
Throughout this history the problem of migratory waves falls. A Russian attack from the East and the South would produce a wave of migration. If you look at the Dnieper, you understand that millions of people will be heading north. But, if you look closely at the Dnieper, you will notice that the refugees living in the northeast today can only land in Belarus. They certainly cannot cross swamps where they fight en masse (quite radioactive) and they have only one choice: the Belarusian border.
If Poles, Hungarians and Czechs manage to close the borders (and by now they are experts), the flood ends in Belarus.
What does it mean?
It means Putin needs a quick win.
Which he can't have on swampy land.
The war will be nuclear, and if Putin wins it will take not only the Dnieper, but the whole of southern Ukraine (up to Moldova, to be used as a buffer country) and leave (to avoid getting bogged down in a radioactive swamp) 'Ukraine very small, to have another buffer state towards Poland. Maybe even a puppet statelet.
But even without trying to imagine the geopolitics of the "after", the problem is that IN ANY CASE on the border between Ukraine and Belarus there is Chernobyl (Pryp "jat '), and that that area full of swamps is to the north of Kiev, and must be cleaned up by the Russians.
This means bombing and ferocious fighting all around the plant.
Those who say that Russia would certainly not take responsibility for such a disaster forget that Putin's approach is propaganda: from his point of view, he can always blow up what is left of the plant, and blame the West. The West would accuse him, and everything would go wrong.
The area would become too radioactive, the Ukrainian soldiers would leave, and the result would be to have it "cleaned up".
If you are in for another Chernobyl disaster, all you have to do is watch as the Americans handle the affair with their proverbial expertise in international affairs.
This:
Honestly, I hope I'm wrong. But this is the madness we are facing.