Rostov
While Feo, the man from Moscow, is dumbfounded and doesn't know how to speak of this "rebellion" in a way favorable to the Russians, I would like to say a few words about what we know about the events in Rostov.
First point: the truth oscillates between “everything” and “nothing. In the sense there are too many questions and too many inconsistencies both to say that it's all true and to say that it's all false.
The first problem is simple. We remember Wagner in the rear of Bakhmut. Rostov is the command center for the special operation. The first question that arises is: who brought Wagner to Rostov? And note well, in the photos you can also see tanks roaming the city.
Since Wagner's boss "declared war" last night, it would seem that in one day Wagner moved, complete with armored vehicles, as far as the city. Undisturbed.
Even regardless of the timing, there are two possibilities:
- someone gave Wagner's tanks a lift and they stay there for a day.
- someone turned a blind eye to 25,000 men marching towards the special operation military headquarters.
- Russians are complete imbeciles.
the third option I would discard. Sure, the Russians have shown weaknesses, but they're definitely not suckers. Not so stupid, at least.
You look at the map, and you understand one thing: if the enemy takes Rostov, the whole special operation is screwed. It means that if tomorrow Wagner goes over to the Ukrainians, and moves into Donets'k, taking the Russians from behind, the special operation can be said to be over.
I don't expect it to be a city easily reachable with 25,000 infantry, plus tanks. I expect that if you try, a military column will be left burning on some street after the air force passes. Unless, someone didn't give them a ride on a military railroad , or someone pretended not to see them.
If it is true, the revolt is much wider than Wagner alone: large parts of the army, physically located in the Rostov surroundings, are they with Wagner?
Another thing: Rostov is not being shot at. Your fucking commando of your special operation is there, and it's taken without a fight? No rear troops offering A MINIMUM of command security? Does that mean the Ukrainians just have to send a commando to cut the generals' throats, provided they can find a cab to take them to the right building?
Um.
Second: if it's true, what are all those Wagner carts doing in the city? Wagnerites are mostly foot soldiers. But even if they had them, how is it that in the city you don't see, from the videos, any curfew? I mean, the mayor sees the city invaded with carts and doesn't tell people to stay in the cellar, or flee?
According to the media, it would seem that they have taken not only the city, but also the command, without a fight being fired. The basis of the entire "special operation". Where are the commanders? They escaped? Are they prisoners?
We know how the Russians fight. And we don't see, in these images, one per thousand of the destruction that happens if you contend with the Russians for a building, let alone a city. Moreover, in all the videos, even those shot by ordinary people (they say), what we see are immaculate tanks and clean uniforms. I understand good manners, but not even Cesare stopped to take a bath and wash the car. Ah, no, Cesare didn't have cars. But you get the point.
For sure, one thing: the narrative doesn't feel earthy. On our planet, things don't work like that.
- the revolt is more extensive than the Wagner group
- the revolt is LESS extensive than the Wagner group, i.e. a staging.
Let us see what the two hypotheses imply. If the officers directing the field operation are tired of fighting and join Wagner, it means that the Russian command has lost the will to fight. In this case, we speak of defeat: defeat is, by definition, the moment when the enemy loses the will or the possibility to fight.
It means that the Wagnerites have the Rostov military command on their side.
Why do I doubt it? Because otherwise the military at the front would have stopped fighting, or would be without command, collapsing the front.
The second narration is more interesting. I mean, it's all fake.
If anything like this was done, it was with Assad. Assad at some point finds himself with a revolution. What it does is destroy the moderate democrats, leaving only ISIS. Then he says “hey, do you want me or ISIS?”. And people say "all right, come on, better Assad at least not shit in the living room."
Now, the question is: who wants Wagner to lead Russia? Um. On the whole planet, there are three people, one is very sick and the other two have been drinking.
I think the scene would make sense. Putin is saying “ok, you want to humiliate Russia and then I will lose power. Do you have a successor…. REAL? Is it true that you have it?”.
Here we need to understand for a moment why Russia in Wagner's hands is scary. First, it's a huge country. Second, generals have HUGE power.
Let me give you an example: If Biden decides to launch a nuclear strike, he has to ask the chain of command, but then the generals and submarine commanders have to obey. If the generals want to launch an attack, no way. They don't decide.
If Putin wants to launch an attack and the General Staff also says yes, there is a problem. It is the generals who have the material power to throw. Russia is too big to rely on centralization, so the generals have autonomy.
On the one hand it's nice because Putin could decide to launch an attack, and his generals decide not to. On the other, its generals have the weapons in place, and complete control. Normally they would comply, out of fear of consequences, but in the event of Russia's dissolution or coup, nobody knows what they would do. And there are many.
And a mercenary's ability to command the respect of military professionals is simply nil. This is why it's scary.
So there are good reasons for both.
If it is staged, it serves to ensure that the West understands that there is no alternative to Putin. If not, then the war will soon end, but in the West the question will be "if not Putin, who?" And Wagner is not among the candidates.
Then there is the intermediate spectrum: the Wagnerites were provoked until they lent themselves to this staging, and the commands cooperated to make it happen.
But one thing is certain: what the newspapers say is NOT happening.