Taurus here and there.
In all the dialectic that talks about the Taurus and the Russian wiretaps, a certain specialization of the press seems to emerge in talking about the thing, but never about the thing. So, I would like to say a few words about what the Taurus system is, to understand the reasons for so much dust, and these "interceptions".
First question: why so much contention? Long-range missiles have already been supplied to the Ukrainians, and are already operational. Why does the Taurus seem special?
If you read the technical specifications, you will discover one thing: it is designed (ALSO ) as a bunker-buster. And no, it would be the first cruise bunker-buster ever supplied to Ukraine. Sure, he could demolish the Kerch bridge, but that's not what scares Putin, the bridge's vulnerability is known.
The problem, in fact, is the “bunker-buster” part. These are truly special bombs, made to penetrate deeply into reinforced concrete. This is why you read both “armor” and “smart detonators”. These are weapons that are made to break through even more than one layer of the bunker's armor, and explode in a place that devastates the bunker as much as possible.
If you think about this requirement, it is clear why the Ukrainians want that missile, and why the Russians have lost their temper and must stop its supply at all costs.
Imagine you are a dictator. Of living in armor and sleeping in a bunker. This makes you feel safe. Certain. Until they tell you that someone is selling your enemy a weapon that pierces the walls of the bunker and kills you. And knowing, due to the hunt for terrorists, that his American counterpart kills his prey in a maximum of two or three attempts.
What does it mean? It means that if someone is selling 100 taurus to the Ukrainians, there are about 30 regime bigwigs who have to stop sleeping in Moscow, or they are dead.
Sure, you can put Putin inside a super-cool bunker, with 100 layers of reinforced concrete and everything you need. True. But can you also include Medvedev? And Lavrov too? And also <put here your favorite public official well known to the Russian public>?
From the Russian point of view, “The Germans selling 100 Taurus to the Ukrainians” means “at least 30 senior officials of the regime will die”, even if they sleep in a bunker with 2 or three layers of reinforced concrete.
Basically, a threat to the LIFE of the Russian high echelons. But there's more.
Putin is currently engaged in a sort of pseudo-election that will see him as the winner. He has to show up. At least by journalists, and at least in some public, or at least governmental, place.
There isn't even one, except perhaps the Kremlin cellar, that can resist a bunker-buster.
You understand why the Russians are becoming aggressive on the Taurus issue. It is an existential threat to the physical persons of the oligarchs and regime bigwigs. Of course, they can take, I don't know, the top 100 most prominent people and make them all sleep together in a bunker of a certain type under the Urals.
But this means, in fact, having put them in prison. Prisoners in the house.
This creates the need for the Russians to do everything in their power to stop the Taurus transfer. It's not a weapon like many others.
Could the US give the Ukrainians a similar weapon? Of course: the war against Al Qaeda has equipped the USA with equally formidable weapons, such as the Paveway III. With 24 of these things they decimated the Iraqi ruling class in a few weeks.
The Taurus is a problem because, being able to reach Moscow, it is a direct personal threat to the highest offices of the Russian state.
Clearly all the Russian bigwigs are hysterical at the idea. It means telling him “we will kill you”.
If the Tauruses arrive in Kiev tomorrow, can they be used? Apparently not, because there are no Ukrainian aircraft (typically old Soviet vehicles) that can install the required platform. But… the missile is not launched by the F-16s that will arrive in Kiev. It is therefore an illusory threat, or a threat that depends on whether Ukraine receives F-18s or F-15s from someone. The F-15s have been announced and Ukrainian pilots are being trained on those as well, but delivery dates for the F-15s are not known.
That is, these are missiles to be launched into the air, a suitable aircraft is needed. If the Russians fear the Taurus, that is, it is clear that the Ukrainians will soon receive F/15s.
Let's talk about wiretaps. The German military uses the Matrix. They said it, announced it, made their own implementation of the protocol, etc. I say it's a certainty because they even went to say it at CCC events.
Why they would ever use a Cisco system like Webex is not clear.
It seems strange, because it's clear that it can't happen. Also because at that level there is no discussion in chat. “Generals in home office”… are we kidding?
My general impression is that they wanted to threaten without threatening. It means that the Russians now have several questions to answer.
- But will they give them to him or not? Officially the government says no, but they had said it many times and then they changed their mind. Coincidentally, they changed their minds about some weapons systems just as the Ukrainians were being trained to use them. (It's not like anyone handles an IRIS-T).
- How soon? The interception speaks of a couple of months. If the Ukrainians to be trained are there. I'm there'? There are Ukrainians here. What are they studying? I don't know.
- What will the targets be? The generals mention the bridge connecting Russia to Krimea, but also admitted to spending two or three on the bridge… and the others?
- Are they just Russian targets? What if the president of Belarus is blown up, for example? There was already a storm in those parts. And he's within range of the Taurus.
This is because, apart from the explicit admission that there are British, French and American special forces operating in Ukraine, all the statements in the intercept lead to these questions.
It seems, to be honest, a "threat without threatening" operation: all that can be deduced is that someone asked the generals to give the times, technical details and costs of a transfer of Taurus to Ukraine. It is true?
The internal political impact. In words, Scholz does not want to give the missiles to Russia. Merz wants to give them. Since if Scholz were to fall, then Mertz would come to power, the discussion is practically closed. (The rumors about an AfD victory are ridiculous, and the secret services have already been working since the last elections to close down that party. ) This was the 'objective?
In any case, this is internal politics. Whether Scholz gives them to him or whether Merz wins in the next elections and Merz gives them to him, little changes. But being political, it makes a lot of noise. If you tell me that regarding the arming of Ukraine it is better for the Russians to give up Scholz, I cannot promise you that it is true. Merz is a convinced pro-Atlanticist, and has already said that he would follow the same policy as the UK.
Let's go to the external effects. Because there are several explosive situations here.
What would happen if a bunker-buster killed Medvedev, I don't know? Eh, it would be a big problem because Putin would have to escalate to remain credible. But let's go to the second ranks.
What would happen if Lavrov, or the director of Russia Today, died, perhaps sleeping in less protected bunkers? Um. Given the notoriety of the people, an escalation on the Russian side would be necessary here too.
What if Dugin dies? Perhaps his air of a mystical prophet would take quite a hit. The Moses of the situation who dies like an idiot is not exactly the mystical epic that a religion requires.
And what if Gerasimov died, I don't know (assuming he's still alive?). Or a daughter of Putin?
We can assign Russian names as we like, and plan a massacre of Moscow leaders differently. How long would the regime last before the Moscow leaders themselves decided to eliminate him and put someone less aggressive in his place?
How many “oligarchs” have to die before the oligarchs realize they are being targeted and are forced to remove Putin from power? How many from the GRU? We don't know.
Another interesting way to test the Taurus would be to slowly demolish the bigwigs of the Belarusian regime. The Tuber in power is very showy. He likes to be seen, but none of the sumptuous buildings where he likes to show off would resist a Taurus. What happens if the Tuber blows up and the population riots? (was there already a storm)?
Destabilizing Belarus by blowing up bunkers would be another method. Transnistria could also be forced to take more lenient advice.
In short, the Taurus, despite being an apparently tactical weapon, in this particular geography of war becomes very strategic. Also because the missile is of German and Swedish production. In fact it is also designed for the Gripen. Sweden has not ordered any so far, but it also recently joined NATO, and has all the clearance to order them, being one of the producers.
Using Gripens, its range covers the entire Baltic and St. Petersburg, or if necessary Kaliningrad, while being launched from Swedish domestic skies.
It is not yet known, and for the Russians it is a question whether they are also being produced for the Swedes or not. All that is known is that both the German military industry and those of the Nordic countries have quadrupled their turnover. They're producing four times as many weapons.
But let's also assume that the Ukrainians no longer want to involve NATO and therefore do not seek escalation (and we know that is not true: Zelensky DREAMS about it when he touches it), what is tactical use?
The Tatrus has anti-ship and anti-bunker functions. In anti-ship function, it would cover practically the entire Black Sea, and with 480 kilos of warhead, it can easily take down a large ship with a single strike. In Ukrainian hands, it would be a terrible danger for the Russian fleet.
In other words, we are talking about a weapon that is only apparently tactical in the context of the war in Ukraine.
For this reason, you should expect numerous twists and turns on both sides.
The fuss over wiretaps, that is, is just fuss. Or as Scholz says, infowar.