The press, the RAM and the seasons.
I happen to have a family in Italy, and to communicate with them. This week I discover that they are terrified: apparently, a high-ranking accountant who is today the prime minister has shown his qualities as a great communicator, appearing on TV talking about rationing.
Luckily he hasn't become President of the Republic at this point.
And it was useless to try to convince them that no, it is not possible to turn off and on the national electricity grid from eight to nine, and many other things. But in the end I had to give up, because the RAM story came to mind.
When I was in college I obviously did some chores to pay my bills, and one of them was to work part-time on Saturdays assembling PCs.
The funny thing I witnessed was the RAM price soar with every news that came from the east.
- “There was a fire in Taiwan” -> The RAM is nowhere to be found and doubles.
- There was a tsunami in Japan -> RAM is nowhere to be found and doubles in price. But weren't they doing it in Taiwan? Eh, you know what these oriental people are like, they make you RAM by betrayal.
- There is a shortage of dog food in South Korea -> RAM is nowhere to be found double in price. Huh? Eh, the role of dogs in RAM production is underestimated.
- The Dalai Lama suffers from colitis -> RAM is nowhere to be found and doubles in price. But what does the Dalai Lama have to do with it? Eh, you know, RAM needs peace of mind to sprout.
- Lun Bokh diRosh has syphilis -> RAM is nowhere to be found and doubles in price. Okay, but aren't you exaggerating? No. RAM workers have a right to recreation.
In short, at every delay in filling a warehouse, and every time you wanted to raise the price, poof: you would take the first news that sounded vaguely oriental, from any newspaper, and put up a sign with the newspaper clipping.
In reality it was the shopkeeper who had supply problems, or who wanted to earn "beyond what is legitimate". Once it was RAM, once it was sound cards (do you remember when a meteorite fell on Creative's headquarters, where they raised Sound Blasters in the Silicon Valley?), Once it was hard drives. Any news from the east was good. The assembled PC CarCarlo Pravettoni used this trick on average for two months a year.
And the RAM rears up!
About the same thing is happening in Italy, but with the war in Ukraine.
So, let's introduce some basic concepts:
- seasons. There is a season for harvesting wheat. Before that season the wheat is not ready. After that, there is no more wheat in the field. The season hasn't arrived yet, neither in Ukraine nor in Russia. Consequently, we cannot yet notice the war because the wheat is still not harvested this season. It's simple: even if ALL the wheat had been destroyed, we wouldn't notice it again, or only after the harvest season. Of course'.
- futures. Nobody buys oil. Do not go to the shop of “Fratelli Ali 'oil fresh of the day” and you get the oil of the Lola, fresh fresh. Futures contracts are bought, after one year, or even more. A sudden increase in fuel prices today makes no sense for this reason.
- the gas. The North Stream II was not yet in operation. Closing it didn't change anything because it wasn't open. The other pipelines are running at normal pace. There is therefore no shortage. And it is not clear how a shortage that does not exist can impact prices already today.
Does it make sense to explain it?
Obviously not. There is no point in explaining it as it makes no sense to explain to the shopkeeper CarCarlo that even if ONE RAM factory burns down in Taiwan, it would not be enough to cause a global shortage.
It makes no sense because it is not the real cause: the real cause is that Italian (and European) families saved themselves during the pandemic, and now we have to get everything they have set aside from them.
Since families will not give up the nest egg so easily, then they resort to compulsory expenses (bread, energy, fuel, etc.), precisely to extort the money they have set aside.
Is there a possibility to defend oneself?
It's like one of those “boycott Israel” stories, which never worked because the “boycott” in the end only four cats do.
For those who have the opportunity, what I will do is go to the root of the problem, that is, anxiety. Okay, I can't change the Italian market, but I can at least prevent my family from going to the pharmacy to buy iodine tablets (what the fuck, they are useless and they are also toxic!) And or book a bunker.
So I decided to give a gift next time I go down. Since my parents' house is now also reached by the fiber, I will do this:
I show them all the blessings, and I say “hey, for this stuff, you can't put the TV decoder on. Choose: the movies you want or the news?
Since mine are movie buffs, I get the fucking news out of the way.
It won't change the prices, but at least it takes away the anxiety. Because I honestly do not understand why Germany is more affected than Italy by the history of gas, and here the TV is not terrorizing the population in this way.