May 3, 2024

The mountain of shit theory

Uriel Fanelli's blog in English

Fediverse

UFO.

UFO.

The history of UFOs, which was already 'depopulated' during the Cold War, is depopulating, and precisely this "concidence" should invite journalists to "close the fucking slipper". There is a strong link between military activities and UFOs, while the link weakens a lot when it comes to ordinary activities.

If you consider for example that EVERY person today has a camera and a camera on them, considering 300 million Americans and about 283 US Navy ships, there should be a proportion of one million civilian contacts for every ship that sees a UFO.

In short, if we talk about optical sightings, statistically the military is "a little" over-represented. And with a disproportion of one to a million, we can safely say that these UFOs prefer to roam around military installations.

For this reason, it is also necessary to ask why these sightings increase in number during the "cold wars": every time there is tension between two nations (USA-USSR, USA-China, etc) the number of UFOs increases enormously.

Let's start from the beginning: the radar. Radar is NOT a perfect tool that provides accurate vision over a wide band. It is a somewhat imperfect instrument, which suffers from many boundary conditions, which contains circuitry designed to remove "false" signals (otherwise it would be very easy to disturb) and focuses on a "safe" set of signals.

What does it mean? It means that if you know that nobody uses the Fokker anymore, you don't really care if your radar allows you to see it. Yes, an accurate radar probably sees it, but it's not wanted. And a missile system, for example, could also clean up the signal so that no one can use a Fokker to deflect an Air-to-Air missile from its true target.

UFO.

What does it mean? It means that radars are specialized and not generic tools (like the human eye) and it means that it is possible, deviating enormously from the radar specifications, to build vehicles that are not visible, or are "removed" from the same circuit because they are mistaken for disturbances. All this is dealt with by the electronic warfare departments.

As a result, special airplanes, or aircraft, develop during cold wars that are completely out of radar specs. In general, UFOs are characterized by:

  • avionic characteristics considered impossible or unattainable
  • shapes and profiles that are not known as a country's weaponry
  • trajectories or positions considered unattainable.

Well. Let's talk about the Lockheed SR-71.

UFO.

This aircraft has features that EVERYDAY are not common to any other appliance.

We are in 1966, and you find something on the radar that:

  • it flies at altitudes that no other aircraft can reach.
  • it has speeds, even at those altitudes, that no other aircraft reaches.
  • it is partially stealth, so your radar perceives it as a dish the size of a serving platter.

What you will do if you are the first to see one is to say "this stuff is definitely alien". And in 1966, 99.99% of the aviation-savvy population would have believed it. And to this day, such an object outperforms many modern military aircraft.

Why was such an extravagant thing done?

Because, in fact, no radar made to fight aircraft had been designed to search for such a thing at that height and that speed: the radars made to intercept intercontinental missiles could see it, but they could not understand its trajectory. which was not predictable using what was known about missiles.

Moreover, during the first flights of U2 spy planes, the Russians saw an object at 20,000 meters on the radar. Several U2 had photographed that the Russians had raised interceptors (therefore they had seen them despite the altitude) The problem is that they did not have interceptors capable of getting there. When they got them, the plane was shot down, but up until that point U2 was something of a ghost. If you see a dot on the radar at 20,000 meters, and you've never seen a plane of that size and speed at that height, you don't know exactly what it is until you've sent someone to look at it closely.

Here is the point:

any vehicle made to bypass or evade enemy spotting and interception systems will appear as alien technology. For the first few times.

Why'? Because obviously it will have features that the designers of radar and interception systems had not considered . They did not consider them possible. And if it's impossible on this planet, it has to come from another. Why initially did the Soviets NOT have interceptors capable of taking down U2? Eh, because it was considered impossible for such a large plane to travel at that height all that time.

But at the first "UFO", then the second "UFO", then the third, at a certain point the Soviets gear up and start making missiles and planes capable of hitting it. But for the first few times, let's talk about UFOs. Then if they become many, then we begin to think about how to shoot them down because we believe in UFOs up to a certain point.

Clearly, now that a new cold war is brewing, these kinds of sightings will increase. It is obvious that the Chinese will try to pierce the American defenses using aircraft with characteristics that go beyond the design of radar systems and interception systems.

An interesting chapter is that the use of AI in the military has both advantages and disadvantages. Let's also assume that you have trained a missile to track a plane. The missile has an optical camera that follows the plane. Well. Indeed, let's get to the concrete.

We have a ship defense firing system, which if a missile (see exocet) travels close to the surface of the sea and shoots at it. Classic OTO-Melara, best seller for a good decade, etc. But when our hero points the radar at the surface of the sea, he has a problem: he sees TWO missiles. The missile and the reflection of the missile on the water. How do we do it?

Well, let's add an optical pointer and put an AI that excludes reflection. Great. But what if the missile masquerades as a "reflection" or is not recognizable as such? Eh, it could happen that the effectiveness drops to 50%. Moral: the enemy should make a missile that looks like his reflection, or something that the optical system does NOT identify as a reflection.

For example, if my missile had the face of a Donald Duck as its reflection, would our otomelara recognize it as a reflection of a missile, or would it conclude that since it did not reflect, the missile does not exist? Uhm. Interesting question.

It's an interesting question because we have to ask ourselves if our Vulkan would shoot Donald Duck in the face. If the answer is "no", then we must ask ourselves if the enemy should not build weapons with the face of Donald Duck.

UFO.
This UFO is shaped like a bird. Question: Do the radars that see a bird represent it or erase it from the screen? If they filter it, someone will build a pigeon-shaped vehicle.

Let's recap:

  • USA and China are in the cold war. Both are capable of building state-of-the-art technologies.
  • We are in the era of unmanned drones. Crazy accelerations and absurd curves are NO longer a problem.
  • We are in the era of optical AI: therefore even the extravagant aspect of an aircraft can, in the face of an AI not trained in that form, be an advantage.

It is therefore foreseeable that in the next few years the quantity of UFOs “whose behavior is inexplicable with known technologies” will increase enormously.

But the aliens have nothing to do with it.

I obviously find the excitement about it pointless.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *