February 28, 2024

The mountain of shit theory

Uriel Fanelli's blog in English


Why the OnlyFans economy impacts the Italian job market.

For half an hour I was a journalist. I joined an agency that is under my house, and which does "media consulting" for the "creator". You know Onlyfans, MayVids, and all that stuff? Influencers, in short, but they are things of yesterday. I went in and asked, out of curiosity, what I could do and what I could earn. Let's start from the beginning and why I did it.

I know very well that a lot of this content, especially on onlyfans, is pornographic. However, the world of “creators” is enormous. I mean it's not just OnlyFans.

I know there's a lot of talk about "but on average the Onlyfans creator only makes $160", but as I often say, giving averages is useless if you don't specify the standard deviation and distribution.

Standard deviation is simple. We know that the one who earns the most, Thorne, earns around 2 million dollars a month, while the one who earns the least is around zero (you can even make a slight loss).

The distribution, number of users per earnings, however, is one of the best kept secrets, even if it can be deduced spannometrically from the known numbers, there are no official figures. So let's go step by step.

Let's imagine being an unqualified Italian girl who receives an offer of 500 very generous euros a month to be a barista, which then net (she has to go to work, etc) will become maybe 300. Good.

This is the income distribution by ranking, on a pseudo-logarithmic scale. The scale was chosen to obfuscate the problem.

We notice a gigantic disproportion, obviously, to go above 10,000 euros, in the sense that we don't even have enough data for a continuous line.

But this scale already tells us something. To beat the bartender's offer, our girl must exceed about 10% of the ranking. But that doesn't tell us how famous she must be or how many make it.

Let's note one thing though. Our scale is logarithmic, or pseudologarithmic. This means one simple thing: it's actually even steeper. So, if you want to stay within 0.1%, it's an arduous effort, and a tiny probability.

If you want to be in the 1%, however, it is still very hard, but the effort is NOT just ten times smaller.

If you want to be in the 10%, then, compared to 0.1%, you are not only at 100 times less effort, you are at MUCH less.

More clearly.

We can look at it the other way around: to go from 10% to 1%, you don't just need to have 10 times more subscribers. We need MUCH more.

To go from 1% to 0.1% you don't just need 10 times more subscribers at the same price. We need MUCH more.

But now let's talk about it in reverse. If we go downhill, in fact, we discover that going from 0.1% to 1% requires not only 10 times LESS users, but MANY fewer users. And away we go.

That is, 10% is not an impossible peak to reach. But let's move on, because to get our answer we need to have more data. We find them, scattered, around the web.

Here we are. We then take the average value. Ultimately, therefore, the average turnover is ~181.2 dollars per month, of which OF takes 20. And on average, 21 users are enough, with an average rate (on OF it is decided by the creator) of 8.62 euros. To reach $500, 70 users are enough.

If we consider that the previous graph puts the people who enter the top 10% at 70 users, you immediately understand how it explodes in the end, but you also understand one thing: for a cam girl, just having those 200 users is enough to go beyond 500 per month.

A number that, on TikTok or Instagram, reaching is almost trivial.

Now, if you consider that the top, Bella Thorne, has 20 million paying users (and they also pay $20, against the average of 8.62) and makes two million dollars a month, while 70 users are enough to make $500, you understand how much the curve is steep. To make millions you need to be Bella Thorne, of course, but to make 500 dollars you only need 70 users.

It should be noted that since it is a monthly payment you have to put a lot of material online, of course.

Not far from my house there is an agency that deals only with this. They have a make-up artist and a professional photographer who shoots eight hours of film (porn as you like) in one day, to be broken up into fragments of about half an hour, for a total of sixteen releases in a month.

If your question is "but they are not afraid of being recognized", always remember that there are both filters and make-up. The difference between a porn star with makeup and one without makeup is this:

Anyone who believes that porn actresses "show their faces" and that "you might recognize them if you saw them on the street" is served.

In short, I was saying: there is this agency under my house. They have a few computers, and in exchange for a certain percentage, if you go there twice a month, paying the appropriate commissions, you will earn more than the "good-looking" shop assistant who takes home 300 euros gross at the bar.

Obviously everything is multi-channel, in the sense that they put you on all the most paying platforms. They have software built specifically for this.

This agency opens at five in the afternoon. From that moment on, couples and groups of 2/3 people enter, usually mixed between males and females, of all ages. And this is understandable: to undress and play with a vibrator you can be alone, but if you want to do porn you need a cock.

There are also other themes, although porn/erotica is around 98% of this market, but if Valentina Nappi has also started and says she is satisfied with the income, there must be some reason. For her, getting into some 1-odd % is a moment. And we're around a hundred thousand a month.

But let's get back to normal people.

After porn, there are channels dedicated to video games, which are also profitable. Here, even video games become profitable, and to reveal the tricks to pass a level an e/sports professional could ask for a subscription, and as I said, if you keep up to date on the titles, exceeding 70 users is very simple.

In short, I got into it. Guys don't get upset when they see me. Both because there are enormous quantities of porn categories I could fall into, including gay porn, and because one of the most requested roles, it seems, is to put on terrorist tights and suck a trans's cock. Okay.

But I made it clear that I didn't want to do porn.

They didn't get upset.

They immediately asked me what I do for a living, what hobbies I have, and I discovered that I have a future in tutorials. They have a sort of list of "hot" themes, which being practically themes (for me who have 28 years of experience in IT) are for beginners.

If I want to make a Judo channel, they also have a pseudo-gym where I could pretend to be a master and give online lessons. Self-defense is strong.

In short, they didn't budge one iota. Plus, they have a list of possible “patasponsors”. They have a room I should enter, with my own equipment, or rented/donated by one of these "sponsors". I'd arrive, I'd put down my ODROID cluster, I'd put in what I know docker swarm, and with this two videos pop up. (at least).

How much would I earn? If I also add the installation of a cryptocoin or the configuration of the GPU, or cool things (does anyone want to enter the wonderful world of NFTs?), they estimated that I could do it, when fully operational, but working (note the though) almost ten days a month (omg!), even 6/7000 euros a month.

Using their social tools, it would take me about 2/3 months to get "up to speed".

Let's be clear, I didn't show him the blog or the git. Tutorials only.

It's not a trick. I could take two months between leave and vacation, and see if it works. The funny thing is that I looked at the Excel table of their simulation (with my job, I'm very fast at reading numbers on a monitor), and in the same line there was… guess…

I mean, to compensate for my IT experience and get paid the same as me, an OnlyFans actress has to do analfisting. As an IT consultant, it seems, I am the equivalent of Argendana. And I forgot to say it. The two were unimpressed, and told me that it is a very well-studied UseCase. Wow. I want to know what the university exam that Argendana studies is called. And in which faculty. Really.

Since I can't write it on the CV, but the guys were very serious, I said I'd think about it.

But when I want to go there, I just have to sign the contract to give him the percentage. And go.

Very calm, professional, clear, legal.

Now, on the German job market, and probably on the world one, it is clear that these will suck up the worst White Trash to make porn, plus other sectors such as e/sports or IT tutorials. (there are tutorials for everything).

And so there are very reasonable reasons why I shouldn't accept, so I probably won't. (these are some pension reasons, for example). But if I put myself in the mindset of someone who lives in the Italian market and is young, I'd never accept job offers for less than 1000 euros a month. If I were a young girl, no less than 2000.

The point is that I didn't ask the guys how much I would earn as a journalist, that is, doing what I often do on the blog. And what I did, basically, going into their house for an hour.

But I wonder what else the aspiring slavers will abolish when they realize that two hundred and seventy million paying users of OnlyFans, alone, can easily absorb almost all of Italy's unemployed youth. Briatore complaining about not finding young waiters makes me laugh.

Briatore doesn't have a problem understanding the job market. He has a problem with 2013.

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