I hate to say "I told you so". One moment. What the fuck am I saying? I really like to say that I said it. About a month ago I wrote, in a post you find here ( https://keinpfusch.net/because-the-pear-must-fluire-cit/ ), the reason why the fear had to flow.
I had written that the fear of something was needed to stop the changes. And there was a specific plethora of entities to save at all costs, entities to shore up with fear. In particular….
The problem is that the terminally ill patient is dying. I read the excuse for the stock market crash today, that is, the oil price crash. To hear the narrative, this happened because there were frictions inside OPEC.
Interesting fiction. But.
In the midst of a transition to electric cars and with the whole of Europe preparing for a green transition, COULD THE OIL PRICE REALLY STAY HIGH?
And for how long?
Same thing for banks and insurance companies. They are terminally ill, killed by technology, who live attached to the drips of central banks. It was just a matter of time.
They probably didn't even do it on purpose: in the sense that if you have a series of 100 buildings propped up, as soon as something like coronavirus panic arrives you are fucked. There is also to say that the stock exchanges and the financial systems, as I wrote here: https://keinpfusch.net/il-prezzo-della-troppa-economia/ were the weak point of the system.
Result: a 2008-like crash, perhaps even worse.
Someone is wondering if the timing is not suspect. I am. But I don't think it's a conspiracy. Simply, many were waiting for the excuse to exit the investments, but nobody wanted to be the Lehman Brothers of the situation. Nobody wanted to end up in the middle of the hatred that followed "Occupy Wall Street". So, there would be nothing strange if everyone who wanted to "give up the hot potato" waited for the NCov-19 fig leaf to sell, I know, the oil futures they had bought.
Why did this thing invest all commodity futures? What does it mean? It means that we have a period (according to investors) of production and consumption much lower than before. And this is not strange either: it is YEARS that we say that we must move towards a greener economy, towards recycling. We are slowly doing it, and therefore sooner or later the demand for resources had to decrease. And if demand drops, prices must drop.
By the end of the year, the European Parliament is expected to approve the technology certification strategy for migration to a “greener” technology, which will lead Europe to reach zero emissions by 2050. If this happens, producers all over the world will have to adapt. There is nothing strange if those who hold commodity futures want to get rid of it on the first excuse. And today they had the excuse.
I do the oil again: when all the houses have been announcing electric models for 3 years, when Bosch announces that it makes billions with the actuators for electric bicycles, it is clear that many, many, many who have oil futures do not see the time to get rid of it. The price of oil could not remain high for long. Coal will follow soon, and many minerals will follow.
The same applies to banks and insurance companies. I'm at the gas barrel. They are in fact IT service vendors who sell services at a price 1000 times higher than the market. Imagine a baker selling bread for 35,000 euros per kilo. How long can they last? They have to get rid of the doors. Clearly, now they have the excuse to do it, a good crisis. I expect tens of thousands of layoffs in the banking sector as a result of this crisis. All over the world.
Nothing that is going on was unpredictable: the only crazy variable is the cost of the houses. The housing market had been drugged by tourism because of Airbnb. If tourism stops, the impact on the home market and real estate will be tremendous.
The only variable that has gone mad, because it is not desired, with the history of the nCov-19 is the impact on the home market and on Real Estate. She has gone mad because in the face of a blockade of tourism, the effects on newspapers are not yet seen.
And this silence, if anything, is what should worry.