Cutro
We continue to talk about the question of the shipwreck of Cutro in terms of party politics, without ever wanting to address the problem for what it is, that is, a problem of international politics, in the strategic sense of the term. And this choice of narrative is not strange, because it hides a problem that nobody seems to want to talk about.
Talking about the port where they should arrive is useless, because once they leave they are subject to sea conditions and the resistance of their vessel. Talking about NGOs is useless, because 86% of migrants arrive after the rescue of the Navy and Frontex. Talking about the European Union is useless, because practically EVERY EU country today is subject to migratory pressure and has to defend its borders. Talking about redistribution is useless and stupid, given that today Poland alone has three million Ukrainians, and Germany one and a half. If migrants were redistributed, Italy would have to keep those it has, and take more from other countries. Talking about agreements with the Libyan government is useless, because there is in fact no Libyan government, there are tribes that manage the patrol boats that the Libyans have.
But this is not the point: the fact that the commentators' fig leaves are only fig leaves is obvious. The real problem is the problem they imply.
Years ago, in the early 1990s, there was a similar problem with Albania, which collapsed.' There were extreme examples of migration, with ships of ten, twenty thousand migrants at a time arriving in port. But the result was a military mission in which the Army went to distribute food and maintain order, and the Navy took on the task of managing the ports together with the local "authorities". Once order was restored, Albania began to recover and the crisis returned between ups and downs.
But beware: if we summarize the story, the Albanian migration problem was solved BY PROJECTING MILITARY POWER on Albania. This is sending the Army, this is sending the Navy. Projection of military power.
If we shift the analogy to Libya, we have to think that in a similar situation Italy could in turn project military power, at least on the coasts. And here comes the problem.
Italy is not capable of projecting military power into Libya, or towards Libya.
Now the usual Limes experts will come and tell us that we cannot project military power because in Libya there are the Russians (who support Haftar) and the Turks, who support the current "government". But things are exactly in the opposite way: if these two nations exist, it is because Italy is absent.
It is enough to look at a geographical map to understand that Turkey and Russia are much further away, and that given the distance, if Italy were to project military power, there would be little that could be done in the medium and long term.
Why isn't it done?
There are two problems, one in Italy and one in France.
The Italian one is that while the operation in Albania required the collaboration of the Navy and the Army – which usually works – to do a similar thing with a larger country like Libya, it would necessarily require cooperation between the Air Force and the Navy.
And that doesn't work. Never. For no reason, due to old frictions between Balbo and Thaon di Revel on the role of naval aviation, and more recent childishness on the division of the military budget. There were also disputes over the use and destination of the F-35s
https://aresdifesa.it/f-35-b-un-problema-tutto-italiano/
https://formiche.net/2020/11/difesa-forze-armate-tricarico-4-novembre/
etc. But the controversy did not arise between General Tricarico and Admiral Mandelli, because it is very old, and dates back to the time of Balbo, and concerns the establishment or project of the Navy Aviation.
Add that governments of the right lean heavily on the side of the Air Force, those of the centre-left side with the Navy, and the dish is seasoned.
The first reason why Italy cannot project military power on Libya is a childhood diatribe that has lasted since the first decades of the twentieth century. Dispute that no Italian government, up to now, has ever managed to heal.
The second reason why Italy could not project military power anyway is called "France". In their absurd and anachronistic "colonial" policy, the French doctrine is that Syria must be under French projection power, or nothing: not even if Russia and Turkey take over Libya (neither of them have particular sympathy for the French). instead of the Italians.
This is due to the competition between Total and Eni for some Libyan resources, but especially, I repeat, in an anachronistic vision of the Mediterranean policy by the French.
France today struggles to expand commercially and strategically to the east because of Germany, to the north because of England, to the east because of Spain: it can expand its influence only in the Mediterranean.
As Italy grows towards Tunisia, they are trying to destabilize the government in Tunis by supporting unsightly faces, while in Algeria they are maintaining quite questionable governments. And they are primarily responsible for the Libyan chaos.
If Italy tried to project military power, creating a situation like that of Ceuta and Melilla (of bridgeheads/enclaves, from which it could also repatriate immigrants and/or better monitor traffic), the result would be that the French they would get in the way to sabotage the operation. (I mean, in case the Navy and the Air Force come out of kindergarten).
The second reason why Italy cannot project military power, and therefore political influence, into Libya is that the French would sabotage any Italian effort, to the point that they prefer to have Turks or Russians in power in Libya. Anyone, but not Italians.
As a consequence, Italy cannot really influence the smuggling of migrants that takes place in Libya, and all it can do is react in some way to the constant departures.
Therefore, when things like Cutro happen, Italian television and journalism raise the level of throwing it into the racket, precisely to prevent people from knowing what the underlying problem regarding Libya is:
Italy is unable to project military power into Libya, due to problems that a serious government could also solve, but evidently we are not talking about Italian governments.
For this, essentially, the migratory flow is open and remains open.