Escalation?
I received the usual accusations of being pro-Russian only because I debunked some nonsense that is told in the newspapers, and now let's get back to reality a little bit. Because the danger of escalation has not passed. We've had some of the darkest nights, but as the situation evolves, we've gotten into a spiral of deterioration.
Why'?
Instead of relying on rumors and hopes, let's try to use what we know for sure.
- Russia has entered an invasion war.
- the war is not going well for them, quite bad indeed.
- Putin is hiding these two facts from his people.
Good. So the question is: what can happen and why is an escalation necessary to save Putin?
At this point, let's see what options are viable for him.
victory: impracticable.
Impracticable. It seems incredible, but let's also assume that the Russians eventually win, kill the Ukrainian president and manage to impose themselves on an exhausted population. Ok. Then the war ends. Ok. Are Russian soldiers going home? Maybe.
Can Russian soldiers at least phone home? Almost for sure. And what do they tell the families? Uhm. What Putin told them about the lies? What was a war? Who sent conscripts to fight, while he always denied it? That the population was hostile, all and always? Who razed cities to the ground with civilians inside?
And why does someone get back phone calls and someone doesn't? How do you hide the dead?
The truth is that even victory is not practicable. The very context created by the invasion is impracticable for Putin.
the defeat. Impracticable.
Putin has promised the Russian nation that it will once again become formidable, well armed, invincible. Being defeated by the Ukrainian resistance is unthinkable. It does not bring out the tales of the last two years, it brings out the tales of the last twenty.
No way. At the cost of gassing every single Ukrainian, Putin will never withdraw if the only opponent is Ukraine.
the draw. Impracticable.
Let's say Ukraine gives him Dombass, or the whole south, plus Transnistria. Could he already get out of the quagmire and go home saying he "defeated the Nazis?". No.
For one thing, the soldiers' homecoming cannot happen, for the reasons I have already explained in case of victory. But if by chance an Azov Battalion re-emerges and continues to fight, even if it is not made by the same people, for Putin they are bitter cabbages.
the long war. Impracticable.
It is possible for a small group to keep something secret. But for 200,000 soldiers and an entire country, keeping a secret that an invasion war is being fought and that conscripts have gone to war is impossible.
It is only a matter of time, and the news will begin to filter through. Therefore, Putin must close the game quickly, but no closure is practicable.
But then, what is possible for Putin, if victory is not even practicable?
It depends on the opponent. The only thing that can change Putin in this war is the enemy. Otherwise, however it ends, his balls will backfire. MUST change enemy.
Putin could lose to NATO.
Putin NEEDS direct NATO involvement. Massive involvement. At that point he could withdraw, saying:
- we can't go to World War III, I am a Responsible leader and I withdraw the soldiers.
- they were not four Ukrainians. We were against the whole of NATO. An overall defense budget that is higher than our GDP.
This is today the only exit from the conflict that is sustainable for Putin.
If NATO joined forces in Ukraine, Putin could saddle dead soldiers with NATO, he could say that Ukraine is really invaded and he was always right, he could say that the recruits were there for exercise or for humanitarian reasons (! ) but NATO bombed them, it could say that it was not the Ukrainian people who were hostile but the NATO agents, it could say that the bombers were those of NATO, etc.
The only solution that saves Putin's chair is for NATO to enter the war en masse. At that point he could withdraw without dishonor, and even boast that he stopped the Apocalypse from doing so.
So now, let's expect some carnage that has never been seen. Let us expect the Ukrainian population to be martyred, with the Ukrainian president begging us to intervene, as he has done so far.
It's Putin's game: change the enemy. The only thing that can change in this war.
And that is why, in the current situation, NATO is not committed and Putin is climbing. He's going to use carpet bombing and target the population on purpose. He will throw whatever terrible thing he has at daycare centers by targeting them, in order to produce images of gutted children. Because he wants NATO to intervene militarily.
If it doesn't work, Putin will use chemical weapons, knowing that many times there have been "red lines" from the US. He will gas and leave evidence that he did it, because he wants NATO to intervene in force in Ukraine.
If that were not enough, then he will use "theater" nuclear weapons, ie tactical weapons, first in Ukraine.
And what if at that point NATO limits itself to arming all of Europe with nuclear power, but does not engage in a direct conflict? That Putin is forced to attack some NATO country, to cause the war he needs to save his power. For example, the Baltic.
The current situation is even more dangerous. Putin MUST go to war against NATO, to hide the fact that all these failures he has suffered in Ukraine come from the Ukrainian army.
Against Ukraine he cannot even afford victory.
Hence, he must change enemy.
This is why the US president has said over and over that NATO will not go to war. This is why everyone is denying this possibility.
Because in the state he is in, Putin remains in power only if NATO goes to war. And so he will do everything, absolutely everything, to force us.
And when I say everything, I also mean nuclear weapons.