It’s still…
Yesterday I wrote that Putin would soon start threatening to use nuclear weapons , and it was a day, and he did. This says a lot about what is happening in Moscow, as it begins to become clear what is happening on the ground.
Basically this seems to have happened: Ukraine is a very large country, with many huge and "empty" spaces between the cities. The problem with such a territory is that the men Putin has fielded are not enough to cover it. In order to compensate for the number, they have to move a lot.
This requires almost continuous refueling, also because instead of focusing on helicopters and airborne troops, Putin has focused on tanks. Which are a logistical nightmare. Nice, huh. But to make them work, you need some terrifying logistics. And if the nation is large and a lot of mobility is required to cover it all, the task is enormous.
Trouble is, the logistics are easy to hit. And the Ukrainian military in Stay Behind is doing just that: focusing on logistics. As if that weren't enough, Putin's reaction (rather than rallying troops in strongholds and building logistics centers there) is to employ even more troops.
Will the Russians win? To this day we would say yes, but the losses for Putin are truly excessive. And the military begins to get nervous.
From there, he issued the order to bring the nuclear forces to the highest level of alert. This has two reasons.
- reiterate his presence to the military who take orders from him and that he is still in command.
- to be seen to the world surrounded by soldiers dripping with medals. The message is "the military is still with me", but the message only makes sense if anyone doubts it.
Before moving on to the questions, I want to point out one thing: there is a stone guest who is silent in this whole affair. Turkey. The Black Sea is extremely important to them, and they cannot but have an opinion on what is happening not far from their coasts. It is not clear how they want to behave, and with Russia they also have the Syrian question at stake. As well as the Libyan one.
I expect Erdogan to let us know what he thinks about it sooner or later. Of course, the fact that he is selling drones to Ukrainians says something. But we'll see.
Let's go to the nuclear point: Putin putting the nuclear force in alert mode and then declares it too. This is due to the fact that Putin has lost the favor of his boyars (I use the historical name of those you call Oligarchs ) for years and years, and that is why he continued to rule, crushing himself, bringing crime to the government. 'organized.
Now that the military has made a bad impression on us and the boyars are against them, you can consider Russia as an Italy in which the Camorra has taken power, and holds the government in power with its forces.
To advise Putin today are the mafia, who are now everywhere in the state, so you must understand what advice they are giving him. What would a mobster do if he were to scare enemies?
It would give a warning. And then a little warning fire. And then a bowler hat, if they don't understand.
And that's what Putin will be advised to do. Warnings and threats. If no one reacts to the threats, the intimidation passes to the facts.
That's why it's really dangerous now. The next few days are crucial.
Let's go to the questions.
- Should we go to war with Russia?
- No. First, because a nuclear war is what the US wants, and as I hope you understand by now, with the Putin we have it can only end like this. Second, because even if the war was not nuclear, taking them from the Ukrainians is one thing, from NATO another.
- Will Putin attack the Baltic republics?
- Not in the short term. Its logistical limits have become visible. To attack, he needs to build dozens and dozens of bastions that will guarantee him the initial logistics. A grotesque preparation time. The Belarusian Armed Forces are a joke. Poland has developed a very ferocious army. Assembling that offensive apparatus before attacking would be suicide. And especially: it would seriously risk losing Kaliningrad.
- Are democracies really that weak and scary?
- no, and that's generally not true. The US is waging a war every 5/10 years, and has the scepter of the most warmongering nation, followed only by the British. On which planet it happens that democracies make less war, or fear war, only the idiotic journalists who write in Italian newspapers know.
- in the event of a total embargo, will Russia fall into the hands of the Chinese?
- Not voluntarily. Russian political culture has been divided for centuries between Pan-Slavism and Orientalism. Putin is clearly a Pan-Slavist, not very active on the Eastern front, whom he pays no attention to. Otherwise he would have noticed the Chinese strategic takeover over Mongolia. Even if they did get close, the Russians would do so with distrust and obtorto neck. And only because forced. Then there is the problem of Africa, where the Russian influence is in conflict with that of China, and so on.
- So Biden is getting what he wants?
- Ni. I don't know what is happening in the US, but somehow helping the Ukrainians is not so irritating Putin, who instead is worried about what to say to the people who are in line in front of the banks, and are afraid of losing power. And of the fact that on two pillars of Russian power, he has only one left, organized crime. Biden has raised his image, but the war in Europe is not bringing about the collapse he probably hoped for.
- who do you think will be hit?
- compared to 2016 the situation is different because in Ukraine things do not go as Putin wanted. I think he could use a theater nuclear to hit a small Ukrainian town and terrify the resisters. It'll hit a small (?) Ukrainian town first, I think.
- will sanctions crush Russia?
- sanctions have the task of verifying whether Europe and the West are able to find a common policy. Some areas of the Russian economy may flock, but Putin and his sycophants are willing to eat weed before admitting they are defeated.
- is there a crafty loophole for Putin?
- Yes'. But he no longer has suitable advisors. If Putin wanted to throw the US out of Europe, he would only have to call Von der Leyen and make a demilitarization agreement on the Ukrainian-Russian border with the EU. In that case, it would have effectively thrown the US out of Europe, in the political sense. But he'll never make a move like that, it's not in his character or even the criminals who advise him.