Biden and the death of globalization.
While the Ukrainian president woke up alive even today (and every day is a heavy defeat for Putin), the real question is: what about Biden's plans regarding a nuclear war in Europe, that is, what a world will come out of this crisis.
The premise is that war is the continuation of politics by other means, and that on the political level Russia has lost the war, even if in a few days it manages to conquer the cities.
The second premise is that plans hardly ever stand up to the battlefield. And this is the case with Biden and the US plan.
In the US intention, the nuclear exchange had to take place with Biden repeating "we do not respond to avoid the third world war", and the European countries helpless as the bombs fall, except France and England who would have magnified the problem by reacting without being powerful enough. And NATO would have collapsed due to the lack of US intervention.
After the war in Europe, the US would have intervened (let's say 2/3 years late) to rebuild everything, "and their industry soars".
What went wrong? What forced the US to close NATO ranks and react tightly with the Europeans?
A whole series of unexpected factors.
- The resistance of the Ukrainians.
The men of the Ukrainian army had trained at Stay Behind thinking that he would melt and that they would flee. As in the days of Krimea. The trouble is that they haven't lasted for days now, but they were given up for losers. So much so that the first reactions to the invasion were lukewarm, while now there are embargoes, blockades, supplies of weapons, etc etc.
American public opinion has become strikingly pro-Ukrainian. The admiration of the Americans is clear. European public opinion is also impressed, to the point that a new influx of refugees is experienced without the usual hysteria.
The political reaction has been impressive: Sweden breaks its neutrality and thinks of joining NATO, the more Germany has broken its constant pacifism since the war.
As if that weren't enough, now Ukraine can sell the ferocity of its resistance as the pro-European impetus of its population. And therefore, a country that respects the legal standards just sanctioned in the case of Poland and Hungary, will be welcomed in the EU, ready to strengthen the Visegrad blogger.
But anyway: no one today can say no to the heroic Ukrainians.
- The Russian military was overrated.
It has often been said that Putin ended up believing his own propaganda, but one wonders how much we believed in it. If until now the men of the Russian armed forces had made themselves honored in Syria, and had entered Krimea with ease, when their number grew we saw an army very similar to the Italian one of the Second World War.
The logistics are catastrophic, entrusted to young conscripts to save money, and it is amateurish. Ramparts are not built to facilitate the disposal of material, which, moreover, does not seem abundant (from satellites) even in the bases just outside the border.
Strategically, and it's the weird thing, they are making a mess. Perhaps the military is trying to lose the war in order to bring Putin down, because it is difficult to think that a Russian general would make such mistakes. If you have huge territory, logistical problems and little time, don't insist on tanks. Insist on paratroopers and helicopters, with effective communications.
But a column of Russian wagons at the slaughterhouse because two bridges jumped and got stuck in a stretch of road surrounded by mud tells us that communications between air and ground forces are non-existent. The Russian officer who ordered the column to proceed in that direction might not have seen that there were two bridges, or had diverted there for reasons of contingency. And pass, even if it shouldn't happen. But that in the meantime the Ukrainians go to undermine the two bridges and blow them up means that there was no one, not even a drone, watching from above. Catastrophic.
The Russian navy that was supposed to lead a SpetzNaz landing, and is waiting. An expected landing is a dead landing. Pate 'of idiots on the beach.
Russian generals can do better than that. They have a lot of strategy professionals. Either they did not want to win, or the staffs are polluted by so much malpractice that they buy ten liters of diesel to have one in the wagon. And so the logistics don't work.
The preparatory phase of the invasion took too long. If they really need 2 months to prepare the movement of 100,000 soldiers, they dream of invading Europe. Those giant camps they created just behind the borders would be burned down almost immediately, as was done in IRAQ. If we think that Russia is that country of logistics geniuses that in the Second World War relocated the ENTIRE HEAVY INDUSTRY, the comparison is disheartening.
The famous S-400 has not arrived, and the Ukrainian planes are safe somewhere in Eastern Europe.
This weakness was not foreseen. Under these conditions, the outcome is not predictable. If this is the maximum of logistics it can show, the Russian army would not be able to maneuver well even in the vastness of its territory.
Biden, therefore, sees himself being spurred on by his own staffs. And he can't turn away.
- European activism.
The Americans thought the EU would collapse in the face of danger, but it didn't. For several factors.
If the EU has the reputation of being divided it is because the British were sowing discord. Hours that I'm out, he doesn't behave the same way anymore. We saw this during the pandemic.
The Visegrad countries are those whose social and political agenda seems to be leaning towards Putin's Russia. They are pariahs, and will become more and more. To get out of this reputation they will have to go back a lot. But they are also the most threatened by the Russians, and therefore they are the ones who NEED to get closer to the West.
Germany saying "an end" to its exasperated pacifism while the Greens are in power is a surprise. Ditto for sweden and finland which seem eager to renounce the neutrality held so far, to join NATO
This too was not in the plans of Biden and the Democrats.
Above all this comes a phenomenon which is the end of globalization.
This end materializes with the inflation we are experiencing: before, prices were calmed down due to all those countries that offered goods at bargain prices, exploiting slave labor and lower environmental and health protections.
Today this has stopped, and production is returning. As a result, prices rise, which wakes up the internal market and empties finance: if prices rise, income increases, and if income increases, it becomes profitable to invest in the home.
The awakening of the market in turn leads to an increase in incomes, either because the government raises the minimum income (for example in Belgium and Germany, a few weeks ago) or because at some point the workers protest.
BUT there are other problems, namely shared infrastructures:
- you can have a pipeline that connects you with a questionable nation, but not with the ENEMY.
- the same goes for ports, motorways and railways. But the most important thing today is that you cannot have the INTERNET in condominium with the enemy. And the internet is the cornerstone of globalization.
The return of a real iron curtain must ask us questions: is the Internet compatible with an iron curtain? Are globalization and the WTO compatible with an iron curtain?
We know the answer: no.
The end of globalization is manifesting itself most strongly where it began and where it was most profound in its effects. The US has an inflation rate that hasn't been seen for thirty years, and even in Europe, sooner or later governments will have to admit its existence. By hook or by crook: if prices go up, given the salaries of cops, states can't even delude themselves into cracking down on protests with the police – at least, not for long.
What does the end of globalization and the Iron Curtain have to do with it? It has something to do with it, because that situation had already existed, and in that situation the USA is the outlet for European products, while Europe is the outlet for American products. It will be necessary to find some balance, but there is no alternative.
These things are making Biden's plans go wrong.
But not everything is decided yet, because Biden is provoking the Russians: someone must give the position of the Russian logistic departments to attack, to the Ukrainians, and it is clear to analysts that they are American satellites.
I mean that if Ukraine is too big for the Russian army when it comes to logistics, it is too big for the Ukrainian partisans who have to find the logistic convoys to attack. It is therefore necessary for someone to suggest their position, and the only ones who can are the western satellites.
Putin knows this well, and feels even more provoked.
And this is Biden's last hope that things in Europe will go as he hopes.
In practice, Biden still relies on Putin to carry out his policy in Europe.
We will see how it ends, but for now a theorem seems to be confirmed: