In the end, it is also quite clear to Italy that there is a problem with the supply of vaccines. This is nothing new in Germany, where supplies virtually stopped after the first two. Today, Italy too knows that they will reduce, putting vaccine recall at risk, and sooner or later it will become clear that Pfizer is following a geopolitical agenda in supplies.

The "slowdown" that comes when the second phase (the booster) should begin, risks invalidating the first dose. But it only happens against European nations: neither England nor the USA, nor Israel have been subject to slowdowns or delays or, as in Germany, entire supplies canceled.

Journalists will begin to notice that these slowdowns / delays of Pfizer, which is American, follow a political agenda later on.

But let's go to the problem of those who want to rebel against the anticovid measures. The real question is: how long will they last?

Everyone sells far-fetched dates, because “now we have the vaccine”. Aha. But even if we vaccinate as fast as the British or the Americans, who started earlier, the toll is frightening. Let's consider that in two and a half weeks Italy has reached one million vaccinated, to reach the 17 million people at risk it takes almost 50 weeks (one year) and to reach vaccine immunity (60/70% population) takes two years.

The same goes for the US and the UK: since they started earlier, they had almost double the time to get to those vaccine rates. This means that, even if they apparently have twice the vaccination, the speed is the same or nearly the same.

But…

soon the recall will also fall on the same infrastructure. You must therefore divide the firing capacity by two. Even if we assume that the infrastructure will double the bandwidth when there is a recall, and the speed remains constant, we are talking about TWO YEARS to reach tranquility.

We are talking about the end of 2022, not the end of 2021.

It is absolutely predictable what is going to happen.

• arrived around April / May, the climate will improve and the infectiousness of the virus will inevitably decrease. People will ask “then? can we go back out? ". Haven't you vaccinated enough?
• no, look, we are still half of the people at risk by age and physical condition.
• so we talk about November / December and then we go back to live? Do I organize the dinner?
• no, because we will still be far from safe conditions. Let's talk about it again at the end of 2022.
• but I'll kill you, infamous!

This is about the dialogue that will happen when the good weather begins, the tourist season will start again (or will try), the restaurateurs would like to put the tables outside, the hotels reopen, the cities start thinking about the people on the streets again. .

at the current rate of vaccination, the time to resolution of the problem is not economically and socially acceptable.

for how long can you suspend rents, layoffs, payments, special supplement funds, lockdowns, curfews? How humanly, socially and economically sustainable is it?

Not two years. Because 2020 has already gone up in smoke. 2021 will certainly go up in smoke, and 2022 is also mortgaged at 70%.

It is not sustainable. The lockdown / measures approach cannot work yet.

The "mandatory disclosure" of vaccine patents could now be invoked (as allowed by international treaties in case of health emergencies), and perhaps forces would multiply. But it's still science fiction. They never will. And now it's too late, it had to be done in 2020.

But time passes. Around May, you will have real street riots, or a very clear fuck off from the population.

Three years in apnea are not sustainable.

The current narrative is that if we despise the deniers enough, then we can keep the population on the track of science.

This stupid idea has a little problem. It's not science.

We know very well that denial is a defense mechanism. Science says so, in fact. And there is no scientific literature that recommends using contempt, ostracism or the police against those who are afraid and in denial.

Who advises to use force, ostracism, contempt or the police against a population that is immersed in the defense mechanism of denial, is not on the side of science. He is on the side of the most sinister fascist superstition.

What "science" tells us is that the defense mechanism of denial is one of the many defense mechanisms that serve to limit anxiety, grief or fear. In a population that is afraid (and a pandemic is scary), it is NORMAL for these mechanisms to appear. They are not avoidable, unless we change the chemistry of the human brain.

Science tells us what stages society will go through during the pandemic.

1. denial: the phase in which the deniers find themselves. "It can not be true".
2. anger: the phase in which extremist deniers find themselves: "Bastard, it's your fault !!!" or "what the fuck are you going jogging, bitch, you kill us all !!!".
3. bargaining. The phase in which most of the population is: “how do I get out alive? let's think of a strategy ".
4. depression. The phase that will begin shortly. “But what the fuck is going on. It's useless! "? But the suicide wave hasn't come yet.
5. acceptance: "it's shit, but maybe being with others will help me".

Denial and anger are the first stage. But the problem is that the truth is coming with a dropper, no one has yet really explained to the population that it ends at the end of 2022, and therefore as the news filters through, those who were already negotiating go back to the anger phase.

This way of giving the news slowly is not making things better. It is creating an ever stronger pocket of denial and anger.

The fact that a large wave of suicides has not yet been seen tells us that populations are still closed between phases 1 and 3. Using force with a population that is between denial and anger is to unleash a revolt.

Those who think they are submerging deniers and rioters in contempt and repression are NOT listening to science, but looking for a street revolt. And the bad ones, because we're talking about an irrational revolt. It does not stop because it is rational to stop.

The truth is that we need to change strategy. Shut up those at risk (mainly the old ones) at home and let everyone else live. The idea of ​​vaccinating them first seems rational, but we are not exactly up to date. In Italy we are talking about 17 million people, in Germany 23, and similar numbers are everywhere. At least a year, at this vaccination rate.

This approach doesn't work and needs to be changed.

Otherwise, 2022 cannot be reached without street riots, and strong ones.

Those shopkeepers' rebellions are still nothing. But they are the beginning.

What exactly am I afraid of?

• towards June 2021 the economic exasperation reaches its maximum. Businesses begin to rebel and shops to reopen. Masses of people pour into the streets as if there was no pandemic.
• the rate of infection begins to rise but is ignored or mitigated by the climate. The police intervene and street riots and unauthorized demonstrations arise, which spread the virus even more.
• in mid / late September, health is overwhelmed by the number of infected. There are no more places in the hospitals, and people are starting to suffocate in their beds.
• in October the massacre of the elderly begins with numbers around 10,000 deaths a day. The new government lockdowns are ignored by most. Each shopkeeper fears that competitors keep open and opens in turn. People, seeing the shops open, begin to live again.

By February 2022, there are no more people at risk to protect.

Reality doesn't knock on the door. The reality -> is <- the door. Either protect the elders, or they will die.