The rain of money that won’t be there.

Sometimes I read extravagant things in the Italian press, and I read these things about the EU's non-actions to help coronavirus-affected nations. I say non-actions because so far (and we are in June) we have only seen words, and it is already known that after THREE votes of the Dutch parliament against funding Italy with a non-refundable fund, the "non-refundable" part you can dream, or almost. Unless you give the Netherlands counterparts such as to frustrate the operation.

The first point is: why is everyone against the ESM? They are all against the ESM because of their own mediocrity. The ESM, in fact, is a loan. And the fact that he has low interest is aggravating.

Let me explain. If you have a business and want to make an investment, you can apply for a loan from the bank. The obvious condition is that the investment yields at least as much as the value of the loan plus interest. Otherwise, interest will eat up all the money that comes in because of the investment. Furthermore, since the loan will have to be repaid, the investment must be designed in order to pay back the amount.

Now, if we think of the states that have announced that they will NOT use the MES, the message that comes to us is "we have no public investments planned", or if you want "we cannot imagine public investments more profitable than the interest (low ) paid to the ESM ".

In short, the refusal to use the MES is already a symptom of the mediocrity of the political class that interacts with it: of course, M5S certainly did not expect ideas on how to invest money, but at least from the PD ….? No, not even that. Because in the final analysis two left-wing populist parties are now the same.

Put simply, absolute mediocrity: spend the days saying that there is no investment here and there is no investment there, do they have a very low interest loan on their hands and what do they do? They don't use it to make the investments they've been talking about for years.

Having said that, let's go to the "non-repayable" part. The first point is that it is not completely lost, because there is a condition that everyone insists on not seeing.

That money is non-refundable for EU member countries . That is, they are part of a treaty.

Now let's ask ourselves a question: what if after taking the billions with the next vote the League wins and Borghi wants to leave the EU? It happens that that money is in the budget of the European fund. Although they must not be returned by any member country, they must be returned as well if the country is NO longer a member.

Do you know the 43 billion pounds that the UK have to pay to the EU (they signed, so they accepted) at the time of the final Brexit? Here, these are slopes of this kind.

The moment Italy decides to leave the EU, it would find itself having to pay that money "out of pocket", as it is out of pocket for member states .

What would happen if "the captain" refused to pay? It would happen that the other countries that contributed directly or indirectly to the fund would have the cards on the table to immediately impose commercial tariffs on products sold to the rest of Europe, for an amount equal to the amount to be returned . No international court on the planet would blame them (assuming they still exist).

So in any case, yes, that money is a chain around your neck that prevents Italy from invoking Article 50: if someone takes that money and uses it, from that moment on Italy will have to add that money at the cost of 'Exit.

For this reason, and not others, in the League we are talking about the succession to Salvini and Borghi. Once you have taken that money, you will no longer be able to go out: at the thought of losing 87 billion tariffs at the border for exports to the EU (which Italy cannot afford to lose and cannot be replaced with other markets) , all the companies in the country would remove support from the anti-European parties.

That money is simply the end of any EU exit project. And the League knows it, and Meloni knows it too. And that's why they are dumbfounded: if they want they could talk about bad Europe because of the saga of this money, which is promised continuously but never comes.

But they cannot, because they know that as soon as the government starts to get them, the chain around their neck will tighten and they will no longer be able to talk about leaving the EU.

That's all: this "non-refundable" money is the end of the plans to exit the EU. Of any Italian government, present and future.

Then, if this rain of money will be there or not, the story is still to be done …

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