Tiktok and the internet that is segmented.
I've been saying for years that in this situation (i.e. the end of "let's do well in the name of commerce") the Internet will progressively segment itself. Of all the effects of this segmentation, we are starting to see the signs, which are not random and which will become more and more numerous.
When the European regulations began to be discussed (GDPR, NIS, NIS2, ENISA, DSA, DMA, DGA, Ai Act, AI Liability Directive, CRA, EHDS, and the others to come) it was immediately clear that in every case the European market will become very different from other markets. If some of these rules have also affected other markets, the simple point is that to operate in the European market companies will have to change.
That is, European IT must become VERY different from American IT.
Why'? Because it's regulated differently.
The ongoing wars come to a head on this. To achieve true segregation of the networks, I believe, we will have to wait for a serious incident that disturbs the public, but the point is that we have already entered a kind of cold war beforehand.
Do any of the commenters remember that many Western platforms CANNOT operate in China? And was anyone shocked when India banned TikTok?
This wall, this segregation, is already there. For years now.
The news is that the United States is applying a law that allows the USA to force TikTok's corporate headquarters in the USA. This doesn't bring the data home and doesn't force TikTOk to keep the backend systems in China.
What it does is place the company under complete US jurisdiction, in order to guarantee access to the data. Then, following non-existent American legislation, perhaps they will force the company to also move the data to the USA.
What could go wrong?
In general, the EU and the US seem to follow different methodologies, hoping not to interfere. Imagine what would happen, for example, if the EU decided that to work in the EU, Tiktok must have its headquarters in Europe. But at the same time the USA wants it in the USA.
Thus, generally the EU decides to intervene on these problems by regulating the market, while in the USA they prefer to use specific measures.
Will it work? Until the first major accident, of course, where the shit meets the fan.
But the point is simple:
The conditions for the existence of the Internet as we conceive it today, i.e. as a global network, no longer exist. And this is because there is no longer a global coexistence, that is, a globalization, which supports its existence.
Tiktok is just the first example.
What we are hearing is the creaking of a system that is starting to show cracks, due to the tensions to which it is subjected.
Let's think for example of Starlink and the story of the war between Russia and Ukraine. In theory Starlink does not cover Russia, but the Russians buy Starlink either with fictitious owners who then rent it back (usually Indian companies) or to use it on the borders.
Now, the idea that a network of satellites could provide internet to everyone wherever they are is wonderful in itself. But the problem is that it only makes sense if the entire planet is under a kind of fair play linked to globalization.
On the other hand, the decision to keep the system on or off over Ukraine can have devastating effects on the war itself, i.e. geopolitical effects. It is clear that sooner or later that system will have to be regulated (EU) or it will be stopped by the American administration.
It's as if we refuse to see the problem. It's as if we were looking at the TikTok story as the peak of the problem, when it is only a small part of it and all in all an effect rather than a cause. The real problem is that with the increase in international tensions, a global internet is no longer possible.
You can see the current situation by exploring this map:
https://freedomhouse.org/explore-the-map?type=fotn&year=2023
you will be able to see how the internet experience is not that of the undifferentiated network that many think it is on a global scale. There aren't many "green" nations, either. Many, even in the West, are "green".
But let's get back to infrastructure. Transoceanic cables are, in addition to satellite networks, very vulnerable in the event of war. These are simple infrastructures to cut. They would not survive in the event of war, and IRAN and Houthis have already broken some cables.
Even on a governance level, it doesn't work very well.
We have another elephant-sized problem: RIRs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Internet_registry
These entities are the ones that give IP addresses to companies, usually telcos, who then resell them to their customers. The trouble? The trouble is that the whole of Europe (as a continent) responds to RIPE. RIPE is located in the Netherlands.
The trouble with RIPE is that it's the one that gives IP addresses to Russia.
What would happen if Russia attacked Europe? In your opinion, does it make sense to think that RIPE would continue to assign IPs, and especially routes that are propagated via GBP?
Does this make sense?
So, I repeat: the TikTok affair is much more than it seems. Soon we will end up in a situation where the word “Internet” means different things in different parts of the world.
It's time to look at the moon, not your finger.
Enjoy the Internet while it exists. With all this tension, it won't last much longer.