I write this post to avoid the cognitive dissonance that I see in Italy, also because the only correspondent from Berlin is actually Mastrobuoni, who sees only Berlin. To understand it, it is as if the capital of Italy were in Naples, and the correspondents reported the situation in Naples as if it were the Italian situation.
I personally live in the largest German hotbed, which is NRW. To be precise, from the parts of Düsseldorf. Even more precise, I live in the valley alongside Neandertal, (one of the). (Just saying that I'm from Neandertal is less cool than it seems, so I usually say Erkrath). However, it is NRW, a Länder that alone has the population of half of Northern Italy. It is the most populous, and therefore has the most cases. So I report the situation in the equivalent of Lombardy.
First of all, we are informed. They are not hiding anything from us, as I read written somewhere. Merkel has just talked about forecasts from 60-80% of the infected population, with the usual Prussian brutality. You are still deluding yourself into stopping an epidemic with the self-certified quarantine. Who is misinformed? Boh.
Every day there are newsletters on the radio and on TV, and there is also a podcast that continuously releases updates. the Koch Institute releases a page updated in real time with the progress and forecasts of the day. (I attach it just below). What do I see different than Italy?
German healthcare has 8.3 beds per 1000 inhabitants, against 3.1 in Italy. Intensive care places are 6.1 per 1000 inhabitants, compared to 1.8 in Italy. Consequently, they are not frightened by the Italian scenes because they think that health care can withstand the impact.
This is the first thing that is said here, but it is not said in Italy. 'Cause we hide things, eh? The fact that you have too few per capita beds. It wasn't always like that, so take it out on those who dismantled Italian health care. Lesson to be learned: health is not dismantled.
What steps are they taking?
First of all, they have already said that they do not intend to follow the Italian approach. For one simple reason: Italians are going to work, and 80% of an adult's social interactions take place at work. For this reason, Italian measures are not changing the trend of the diffusion curve, which was and remains exponential. (I mean, what you're doing is NOT working. So you're going to do it harder and harder. It won't work.)
In terms of work, what I have to do if I feel ANY symptom (even of normal flu, or of caghetta, or of anything not necessarily Corona) is to call the family doctor, who detaches me a certificate on the phone. send to Krankenkasse digitally, and at that point I am justified by my absence.
Why do they do it? Because the other patients also clog health , so the more they put at home, the more places remain for coronavirus patients. If an epidemic of normal infulenza also attaches itself to the crown, health is not enjoyed . So you stay home for ANY disease that is even minimally infectious.
The difference here is very visible, because in Italy staying at home for a cold is considered the infamous brand of the fancazzista, while here they are ASKING us to do it. Because, they say, 80% of social contacts happen at work.
Last point, the schools: they prefer to keep them open, they simply blocked trips, exchanges with other countries (here they start to do them early, at 12 years old my daughter had to go to England for two weeks). Why do they do it? Because since kids are asymptomatic, keeping them away from adults for hours and hours seems sensible to them. As far as I hear on the radio, the reasoning is that if kids spend less time with adults, they infect them less. (unless the curve is vertical, but in that case it's all useless).
How are they facing the emergency at a political level?
Last night Merkel told parliament that they expect 60 to 70% of the population will be infected. Vaguely brutal , but it's the local style. They take it for granted, given that so far the only case in which they have stopped the virus comes from the propaganda of a communist country. Which everyone believes a lot, after the famous "all right in Chernobyl". Could the fact that the Chinese regime is arresting any journalist who wants to do interviews in that area raise any doubts about the "end of the epidemic"? But no. One must be well informed, and listen to the communist regime . Ok.
Anyway, this is what happened at about 7am last night.
Let's go to the forecasts of the Koch Institute.
The peak expected here in NRW is for this week end, where we will have +5000 cases. In total, for Friday there are about 11,000 cases expected for Germany, as explained by the good Tableau of the Robert Koch institute.
As you can see in the 7-Tage-Prognose (seven-day forecast) the number is expected to rise to 12,000 infected for the weekend. So we are preparing to overtake Italy on Friday.
What is the approach they are following?
Since they start from a "privileged" situation of 8 seats per 1000 in healthcare, they are trying to do what in IT we call "horizontally climbing": to bring the number of places (also using airports and the structures they used for immigrants ) to be 9 per 1000 inhabitants.
But in any case, NOBODY is telling us the story that it would be possible to stop or slow down the virus. At the limit, explosive situations can be avoided by prohibiting events over 1000 participants. But beyond, they tell us, it is useless. (implied: it is useless in Italy).
However, the approach has been to block the export of medical products and aids, so as to dedicate the entire German pharmaceutical industry to coronavirus and German hospitals. The same policy of India and China. It is not a problem for Italy or the UK, but for the USA that have little pharmaceutical it could be.
This is because, precisely, according to Merkel "they trust that by strengthening the health system it is possible to withstand the impact". Then they invited the Länder (who have the competence) to do their utmost to increase the number of per capita beds by 50%.
The old. At least here in NRW many are closed in the so-called private RosenHof, which do not even let you approach the door (at least, the one I cross on the street when I go shopping has the door cordoned off) and do not let relatives enter. Many others are in the public FamilienZentrum, which follow the same policy. Those who are partially self-sufficient are assisted by Diakonie or other AWO-type associations, and receive only one visit a day at home and by qualified personnel. Others who live at home must stay at home. If they do, we will see it.
They are dealing with it, as far as I can see, with sanitary methods.
It is an ambitious bet, because everything is being played on the fact that it is possible to strengthen the health system until it is capable of withstanding the impact. In a short time.
On a personal level it is difficult to convince them of the contrary, because apart from the usual "Katastrofe! Katastrofe! "Who are in the opposition (and Bild, which obviously shows women with smaller tits to emphasize the disaster), the answer is that it is a health problem and therefore it is obvious that health must be strengthened. I lost hope of making a German change his mind when he says something that, to be honest, seems obvious.
So no, we are informed, we have seven-day growth forecasts, and we have instructions on what to do. The strategy is quite clear (then to the idiots, who also exist here, NO strategy is clear) but it is exactly the type of strategy that is hidden in Italy.
If anyone is hiding something, it's you. It is hidden from you that:
- Your measurements are NOT working, and are therefore being tightened. (To no avail)
- The problem is that your health care has been plundered in past years.
- You are not climbing the number of beds.
Moreover, 2/3 of the Italian government, the government called to face an epidemic, are made by a party led by a comedian, whose members believe in chemtrails and do not believe in vaccines. What could possibly go wrong?
Of course, the German bet could fail. It could happen that the virus also exceeds the limit of 6 intensive care beds per thousand inhabitants, and that growth cannot be pursued.
But you have to bet on something. And honestly, a self-signed quarantine is not the horse I would bet on in my opinion.
Because as someone pointed out to me, 80% of today's adult social contacts don't happen in the nightlife. It happens at work. And as long as you send people to work, the rest is COSMETIC.
This is how much from the place where I live. I imagine that things are going differently in Bavaria and that they are going differently in Baden Wurttenberg, because they are very different. Magai in Baden Wurttenberg get sick only when the city council says so, or something. In Bavaria, perhaps the sick are shot, according to the glorious local tradition. I don't know, because Germany is a federal country, and the government has left some decisions to local governments, such as closing schools or shooting sick people. (the latter is a joke, of course. That with Fusaro around …)
Otherwise, what is my life like? Normal. I'm working from home (because it's easy in my industry, so I do) and my daughter is at school regularly today. Clearly, there are fewer people on the streets and on public transport, because many are doing like me, or have become sick from some attack by a little dog.
What is missing is panic.